At RailFreight.com, we have extensively covered the problems plaguing the Russian railways. Among those have been declining loading volumes, staff shortages, rolling stock shortages, and other economy-related challenges. A new problem, namely the recent drop in oil and petroleum volumes, has a different cause: Ukrainian attacks on refineries.
Loading of oil and petroleum products on the Russian rail network has reached its lowest point since the covid pandemic. In September 2025, Russian Railways (RZD) loaded an average of 503,300 tonnes of oil and petroleum products per day, equalling the June 2020 figure, a low point during the pandemic.
Some media outlets have reported that Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have taken out 38% of Moscow’s refining capacity. While that figure may be grounded in facts and data, according to Carnegie Politika, the impact on the Russian oil industry remains limited and is not catastrophic.
Rail freight reveals reductions
The real damage inflicted by Ukraine’s attacks is not publicly known, but the impact of the increasingly frequent attacks is clearly visible in rail freight statistics. The refinery attacks seem to be the leading cause of a drop in oil in petroleum loading across RZD’s network as production capacity takes a hit. In contrast to other types of freight, oil and petroleum was always stable and steady in terms of loading numbers.
As a general rule, the Russian national rail operator used to load around 17-18 million tonnes monthly, but that has now taken a dive to 15,1 million tonnes in September 2025. If Ukrainian attacks grow in frequency, that number could drop even further.
Not only Russian rail freight figures reveal the effect of the refinery attacks. Also in Russia’s staunch ally Belarus, changes are visible. Belarusian rail exports of oil and petroleum products have risen fourfold month-on-month in September to 49,000 metric tonnes, according to Reuters.
Losing a lucrative business
Again, while the situation is not exactly catastrophic, the drop in oil and petroleum product transportation is bound to be a thorn in the side of RZD and a sign of war woes. Oil is typically the second-biggest product category on the railways (after coal), good for some 17% to 19% of the total volume.
When RZD was forced to prioritise coal exports on Kremlin orders, it made its dissatisfaction with the situation very clear. The rail operator then fought to revert the coal prioritisation, hoping to carry more high-value products that earn the company more money. It specifically mentioned oil and petroleum as a more lucrative choice.
That was especially true for the Far Eastern railway towards China and the Pacific ports. Rail infrastructure in the area was operating at maximum capacity, meaning that RZD could not simply run more trains and move more goods. Russia currently has an investment programme running to significantly boost capacity on those routes, setting up for tightening trade relations with China.
Far Eastern railway
What those programmes likely did not foresee is that transportation demand would soon fall short of the maximum capacity. Russian publication Kommersant writes that volumes on the Far Eastern railway have actually dropped, with the leading cause of that being the drop in oil and petroleum transportation.
Between January and September 2025, the rail freight volume on the Far Eastern railway dropped by 5,3% year-on-year. Oil and petroleum products saw a 7,2% decline, as did timber and industrial raw materials (-8,9% and -18,9%), although those are smaller freight categories. Coal shrunk by around 4%.
An across the board decline in loading has been a trend in Russian rail freight for some time now. However, the recent faster-than-average fall in oil and petroleum volumes are new and noteworthy, because oil has traditionally been a stable commodity for the Russian rail industry.
What comes next is anyone’s guess. A continuation or intensification of the Ukrainian attacks will probably show up in RZD’s monthly figures in the near future. The conclusion for now is twofold: the Russian rail operator is losing volumes of a product that is much-desired, as the company has repeatedly indicated, and the Far Eastern railway is shrinking contrary to long-term expectations.
