The Russian economy is not doing all too well, and part of that is reflected in the monthly statistics published by national rail operator Russian Railways (RZD). Throughout 2025, the already ongoing decline in loading volumes has sped up substantially. Let’s zoom out and look at the bigger picture.
The first half-yearly loading report by RZD is crystal clear: a 7,6% drop year-on-year overall. In total, loading added up to 554,5 million tonnes in H1 2025, 46 million tonnes less than H1 2024. The decline fits an emerging pattern on the Russian railways, where fewer and fewer goods are being put on trains domestically.
Loading in Russia starts slow in January and starts to pick up in the following months. By summer, economic activity slows down again, and accelerates later in the year, peaking in December. But this year, every month has underperformed compared to the same month in 2024. Compare, for example, the two February’s: February 2024 reached a total loading volume of 95,9 million tonnes, whereas February 2025 got stuck at a mere 87 million tonnes. A decline of 9,3%.
February is not an exception in that regard. When comparing the months, starting in January 2024, we can see that 2025 has consistently brought loading declines approaching minus 9%. But the summer of 2024, and yes, every month since January 2024 at the very least, has underperformed compared to the same period of the previous year.
Which types of goods?
Nearly all types of freight in Russia are going through a loading decline. Only fertilisers, non-ferrous ore and sulphur recorded a positive dynamic in H1 2025. When it comes to fertilisers, Russian exports to China grew by 70% in terms of volumes 2023, but the EU also continues to import from Russia. Its share of EU fertiliser imports has grown from 17% in 2022 to about 30% as of June 2025, according to Die Welt.
Despite that, there has been no incredible growth in fertiliser loading. It grew by 4,8% in the first half of the year, beating all other categories of freight.
Spearheading the loading decline are grain, scrap metal and construction materials. The causes here are multiple: the Russian construction sector has slowed down amid high interest rates. That has suppressed the demand for housing, which in turn slows down demand for construction materials. At the same time, some major national infrastructure projects, like the M-12 highway, also concluded.
That same shrinking construction sector exerts pressure on the scrap metal market. Steel manufacturers face decreasing demand, which in turns reduces demand for scrap metal. The demand may strand at 16 to 17 million tonnes in 2025, which is 20% lower than what it was in 2024.
When it comes to grain, RZD is being outcompeted by the road sector. At the same time, Russia introduced flexible export tariffs for grain earlier in the year, which has prompted traders to hold on to their stocks before selling it off abroad.