Freight rail volumes in the United States reflected mixed economic signals in September, as modest gains in industrial commodities were offset by weak intermodal performance and employment data. The Association of American Railroads (AAR) said the figures show a market mirroring the broader economy – cautiously optimistic, yet persistently hesitant.
US freight rail is following in the tracks of an uneven economy, as growth falters in key sectors. Total US rail carloads fell 1.2% year-on-year in September 2025, with declines across 12 of the 20 major categories tracked by the AAR. Yet overall volumes remained higher than earlier in the year. Average weekly carloads stood at 225,783, above the nine-month average of 221,853.
Construction and intermodal show some weakness
For the year to date, total carloads were up 2.1%, representing more than 180,000 additional loads compared with 2024. Twelve categories, including metal products, autos and parts, and construction materials, registered gains. The intermodal segment, more closely tied to consumer spending and international trade, also weakened in September. Shipments fell 1.3% compared with the same month last year, averaging 275,559 containers and trailers per week. However, year-to-date intermodal traffic reached 10.57 million units, up 3.5%—the highest since 2021 and the third-largest total ever recorded.
AAR analysts said many shippers front-loaded cargoes ahead of the holiday season to manage risks around consumer demand and supply chain disruption, potentially pulling forward volumes from October. The AAR’s industrial products index, a basket covering chemicals, paper, steel, automotive, ores, and building materials, rose 0.1% in September. That marked the fifth consecutive monthly increase and underlined the resilience of core industrial activity even as manufacturing overall remains subdued.
Metals, grain strong, chemicals and coal volatile
Shipments of primary metal products climbed 2.3%, with iron and steel scrap up 18.4%, extending a seven-month growth streak. Year-to-date scrap volumes were 9.4% higher than in 2024 and at their strongest since 2011. Chemical carloads—an important indicator for industrial output—fell slightly (0.7%) but still ranked among the top six months on record. Through September, total chemical shipments reached a record 1.29 million carloads, up 1.5% year on year.
Agricultural traffic showed continued strength, with grain carloads averaging 20,966 per week, up 3.5% from last September. Year-to-date totals were 6% higher and the best since 2021. By contrast, coal traffic slipped 3.8% year-on-year in September, the first decline in seven months. Even so, total coal carloads for the year to date were 4.4% higher, benefiting from the low base of 2024, when the Baltimore bridge collapse disrupted exports. Excluding coal, total carloads declined just 0.2% in September—their first dip in seven months—and remain 1.4% above last year’s level, the highest since 2019.
Broader economy sending mixed messages
The AAR compiles its own Freight Rail Index (FRI), which reflects wider economic performance in the USA. The FRI revealed that combining intermodal and non-coal, non-grain carloads, fell 0.8% from August, marking the fifth drop in six months. Yet at only 1% below its level a year earlier, the index still suggests a gradual rebalancing rather than a sharp downturn.
The latest rail figures coincide with a growing sense of fragility in the US economy. A partial federal government shutdown has delayed official labour data, but private surveys suggest employment has weakened. The ADP National Employment Report showed private-sector jobs falling by more than 30,000 in September, while the “quits rate” and “hiring rate” both dropped to multi-year lows.
Outlook is for resilience amid risk
Overall, the AAR sees freight rail performance as steady but vulnerable. Through September, total carloads rose 2.1% and intermodal volumes 3.5%, reflecting firm transport demand despite economic headwinds.
“Uncertainty remains the dominant theme,” the Association concluded. “Rail traffic continues to demonstrate underlying resilience even as the broader economy struggles for clear direction.”
With manufacturing still subdued, consumer confidence fading, and the policy outlook shifting, rail freight looks set to remain a sensitive barometer for the uneven health of the US economy as it enters the year’s final quarter.