Rail freight costs on the Eurasian overland corridors continued to rise in December 2025, while deep-sea–linked transport costs increased even faster, narrowing the price gap between rail-based Silk Road routes and Suez Canal shipping, according to Maxmodal’s latest index data.
The Maxmodal Silk Road Index (MSRI) for 20-foot containers rose from 11,180 to 11,271 in December, reflecting sustained year-end cost pressure across Eurasian rail and multimodal corridors. Over the same period, the Maxmodal Suez Canal Index (MSCI) climbed to 3,105, driven primarily by higher deep-sea freight rates and a series of operational disruptions affecting European on-carriage.
As a result, the spread between the two indexes narrowed to 8,166 points, down from 8,223 in November. According to Maxmodal, this compression reflects a faster month-on-month increase in deep-sea–related costs rather than any structural improvement in the competitiveness of maritime routes. Early January indicators already point to easing pressure, as container rates on Asia–Europe sea lanes began to soften at the start of 2026.
Rail corridors remain under broad-based pressure
Rail-based Silk Road costs continued their gradual upward trend in December. The MSRI increased by 0.82% month-on-month for 20-foot containers and by 0.77% for 40-foot units, pointing to persistent cost pressure across multiple corridors rather than a single regional bottleneck.
Both the Middle Corridor and the South Corridor recorded positive dynamics. The Middle Corridor index increased by 0.9% for 20-foot containers, while the South Corridor rose by 0.7%. This resulted in a slight narrowing of the price spread between the two routes to 3,249 index points, equivalent to a 0.1% month-on-month contraction.
Despite these movements, Silk Road route rankings remained broadly unchanged. The most competitive routings continued to run via the Kazakhstan border crossings at Dostyk and Altynkol, combined with Black Sea access through Poti and Constanța. These routes retained a cost advantage of up to 26–27% compared with alternative configurations.
Eastern and Trans-Caspian segments drive the index
December’s MSRI growth was increasingly shaped by eastern and Middle Corridor segments, with contributions spread across several macro-regions. The China Border–Caspian Sea corridor was the single largest contributor, accounting for 25.5% of the index movement, supported by firmer transit pricing and year-end activity.
Black Sea–Central Europe remained an important stabilising segment at 21.2%, although its influence was less dominant than in November. Strong upstream momentum was also visible on the Xi’an–China Border leg, which contributed 20.8%, reflecting resilient outbound rail flows from inland China.
Additional support came from Caspian Sea segments (16.8%), the South Caucasus (7.7%) and the Black Sea (6.9%), while domestic Chinese legs around Xi’an remained broadly neutral. Overall, the structure of the index in December was more balanced and east-weighted, pointing to a wider distribution of cost drivers heading into early 2026.
Deep-sea rates dominate Suez Canal index rise
The MSCI increased more sharply than the rail index in December, rising by 5.01% for 20-foot containers and by 5.64% for 40-foot units. Maxmodal attributes 90.6% of this monthly increase to the deep-sea leg on Asia–North Europe routes.
Europe on-carriage contributed 5.8% to the MSCI increase, largely due to disruption-driven cost pressure. A full closure of the Elbe Valley rail corridor from 1 to 10 December, restrictions at Rotterdam World Gateway and RSC between 10 and 21 December, and prolonged barge congestion in Antwerp-Bruges and Rotterdam reduced inland capacity and raised effective costs.
China pre-carriage added a further 3.6%, indicating broadly stable upstream pricing conditions rather than a surge in inland demand.
Looking ahead, Maxmodal notes that early January data suggest a potential moderation in index momentum, as deep-sea container rates have started to decline, indicating that December’s narrowing of the rail–sea spread may prove temporary.
Full report is available on https://index.maxmodal.com/