The DemosAU survey from January 5-6 with over 1,000 voters found One Nation surging 16.6 points from its 2025 election result of 6.4%, fueled by concerns over immigration, security post the December 14 Bondi attack that killed 15, high living costs, and net zero policies.
Labor holds 29% primary but leads 52-48 on two-party preferred against the Coalition; a hypothetical Labor-One Nation matchup ties at 50-50.
Support flows strongest from regional voters at 32%, TAFE-educated at 30%, over-55s at 28%, and nearly one-third of prior Coalition backers, signalling bloc shifts among conservatives.
