The first trains through the Fehmarnbelt tunnel between Denmark and Germany will not run before 2035, three years later than previously expected. This is the assessment of Danish state-owned operator DSB, according to Danish media outlet Ingeniøren, while road traffic could start using the tunnel several years earlier.
The forecast is contained in a memo DSB prepared for a meeting with the Danish Ministry of Transport and infrastructure manager Banedanmark. Danish media Ingeniøren, obtained access to document saying that the delay is most likely linked to the German side of the project. Until now, the expectation was that trains would be able to cross the Fehmarn Belt in 2032.
The bottleneck is not the 18-kilometre immersed tunnel itself, but the Fehmarnsund crossing between the island of Fehmarn and the German mainland. Today, trains reach the island via a single-track bridge from the 1960s, which is not equipped to handle the additional traffic expected once the Fehmarnbelt tunnel opens. Germany is therefore planning a new tunnel under the Fehmarnsund, with two rail tracks and four road lanes.
Germany already pointed to 2035
The DSB memo matches the signals coming from Berlin. Earlier this month, the new ‘Infraplan’ of the German Federal Ministry of Transport indicated that the Fehmarnsund tunnel would enter service “by 2035”, according to German news agency dpa. Until then, the transport ministry of Schleswig-Holstein had been working with a completion date of 2031 or 2032.
“We cannot afford any further delays on this important project”, said Claus Ruhe Madsen, Transport Minister of Schleswig-Holstein. Deutsche Bahn, on the other hand, was more cautious. “We do not have a new schedule at all yet”, a spokesperson told dpa, adding that talks were still ongoing. In the meantime, costs have also gone up. The replacement of the Fehmarnsund crossing was originally estimated at €714 million, while German infrastructure company Deges now puts the cost of the tunnel at €2.306 billion.
Trucks first, trains later
The delays on the German side were already behind the decision by Sund & Bælt, the Danish state-owned company building the Fehmarnbelt link, to open the tunnel in two stages. In May, the company announced that road traffic would go first, with the railway following once the German facilities are in place. On top of that, construction on the Danish side is around two years behind schedule, due to problems with the special vessel used to immerse the tunnel elements.
“It is unfortunate for the green transition and for rail passengers that the railway cannot open at the same time as the road connection”, said Mikkel Hemmingsen, CEO of Sund & Bælt, at the time. According to Danish media, the road connection is currently expected to open in 2032. If DSB’s forecast proves correct, trucks would have a head start of around three years.
In other words, rail freight between Scandinavia and Germany will have to keep using the longer route via the Great Belt and Jutland for most of the next decade. RailFreight.com already reported in 2024 that freight trains could have to wait up to five years longer than road traffic to use the tunnel. Back then, Deutsche Bahn showed no sign of trouble on the horizon. Today, that scenario looks increasingly realistic.
Scan-Med delays
The news about the delay on the Fehmarnbelt Tunnel comes a week after the construction of another key project along the TEN-T Scandinavian-Mediterranean Corridor was extended. The Brenner Base Tunnel, which will connect Italy and Austria, is facing similar setbacks, with the deadline moved from 2032 to 2034 and costs going from €10.5 to €11.7 billion. For the Fehmarnbelt Tunnel, though, it is not clear if the postponement will result in higher costs.