DemosAU’s new survey of over 9,000 voters from May to July 2026 projects One Nation at 30% primary vote, ahead of Labor’s 26%, with simulations showing the party could claim 53 to 66 House seats—close but short of the 76 needed for majority.
Labor might hold 60 to 72 seats, while the Coalition lags at 11 to 22; One Nation leads in 39 of 41 regional seats and shines strongest in Queensland at 34%.
Though other polls show less dramatic shifts and the election remains two years away, the results highlight One Nation’s gains in outer metro areas like Brisbane and Perth amid voter frustrations.
Polls are polls but you can’t deny that this is a historical time in Australian politics.