About a month ago, RailFreight.com wrote that Russian rail freight could gain renewed momentum from the Iran war. The national rail operator Russian Railways (RZD) saw fresh opportunities with global demand for Russian oil and coal growing. Now that the numbers are in, it indeed seems that RZD ended its 2.5 year-long negative streak due to the conflict.
Russian analysts earlier projected that the Israeli-American war on Iran could cause a structural shift in existing rail freight trends, meaning the persistent decline in Russian loading volumes.
RZD’s head Oleg Belozerov already in April stated that his company observed changes in freight flow directions and a modal shift from maritime to rail due to the war. Perhaps unsurprisingly, some shippers have been keen to evade the Middle Eastern region and have opted for alternative routes. As a result, the China-Europe route through Russia saw a growth of 40% in terms of containers transported in March, according to Belozerov.
Coal and oil, drivers of growth?
However, above all, Russian analysts see expanded potential for coal and oil product shipments. With fuel prices rising globally and the US cancelling part of its sanctions imposed on Russia, this should also come as no surprise. Coal transportation grew for the first time this year in March, by 0.4%.
RZD’s loading volume figures for April indicate that this trend is not yet over. For the first time in around 2.5 years, the operator improved its monthly loading figures on a year-to-year basis: +1.9%.
The views of Russian analysts seem to have been correct: loading of black coal increased by 9.4% compared to April 2025. Grain also played an important role in the growth figures: a good harvest led to a monthly year-on-year increase of 80%.
In terms of shipments towards only the east (China and Pacific Ocean ports), oil product shipments grew by 46.9%. Fertilisers (+51.4%), grain (+250%) and coal (+9.5%) also contributed to larger loading volumes.
