Fewer and fewer trains are entering Europe through Malaszewicze. In January, only 21 trains crossed the Polish – Belarusian border on a daily basis. That is almost as little as in 2022, the first year of the war in Ukraine. There are various reasons for the decline, but traffic is also expected to pick up again later in the year.
A downward trend at the Malaszewicze border crossing has been ongoing for a while. In November 2024, there were 27 trains crossing the border on a daily basis. In December, that number had decreased to 23. As of January 2025, it is down to 21. Before the start of the war in Ukraine, 50 trains were passing the border on average per day.
Martin Koubek, Silk Road and CIS director at METRANS, points to various factors contributing to the development. Russia implemented sanctions against dual military-civilian use goods transiting its territory, which led to more than a thousand containers being blocked at the very least. “In containerised cargo, those sanctions were implemented last year which caused the first decline. This situation is now somehow solved, not so much cargo as per my knowledge is blocked”, Koubek explains.
EU sanctions also have an impact
“The second reason for the lower cross-border volume are more strict sanctions towards bulk cargo which was crossing from the east, like fertilisers, wooden plates and glass, which partly came into the newest sanction list”, Koubek continues. “Therefore, this type of cargo is not coming from Russia or Belarus into the EU anymore, thus less trains.”
Besides that, there are seasonal factors at play. For example, Chinese New Year took place in early February, which also meant that fewer export shipments were carried out to Europe.
Middle Corridor growth
That also means that things will likely start to pick up again later in the year. “I am expecting that later this year, hopefully already in March, the intermodal trains will start to increase also via the Malaszewicze area and our terminal and also others will gain more work”, says Koubek.
There is also the possibility that the decline at Malaszewicze does not accurately reflect a drop in China – Europe freight traffic. “In the meantime, we have seen more cargo through the Middle Corridor, where METRANS takes over the trains in the EU and distribute it in the METRANS network. We see some small increase in the Middle Corridor route”, Koubek explains.