Rail freight in Russia has been on a long downward trajectory. Freight loading volumes on the Russian Railways (RZD) network have dropped for nearly three consecutive years. This year, however, seems to have brought some stabilisation to the market. Yet, skepticism remains on the durability of this development.
After the freight loading volume in Russia had declined for many months, it returned to growth earlier this year. In April, it grew by no less than 1.9%. More growth numbers followed in subsequent months: 0.5%, 1.0%, 0.1%, and 0.9% in May, June, July and August respectively.
External factors give RZD a boost
This is a major break from the earlier trend, at least at first glance. However, Russian experts warned that this was not a case of a massive modal shift back to the railways. Rather, the rail network was benefitting from a number of external factors working in its favour.
For example, the high diesel prices and the resulting higher costs in road transportation made the railways temporarily a more attractive option. Moreover, a good early summer harvest and an intensive construction period boosted grain and cement volumes on the network.
“If Russian Railways can maintain the loading and unloading operations without interruption, some of this volume can be secured”, a Russian expert was quoted as saying in local media earlier this year. “If not, the cement will be recycled back into the truck fleet, even with expensive diesel.”
The long road to China
RZD remains in a period of structural change. The reorientation of trade from west to east has elongated rail supply chains, which is clearly visible in the operator’s data. The growth of transport performance measured in tonne-kilometres has consistently outpaced freight loading developments. This suggest that freight is carried over longer distances. The graph below visualises this: hover over the lines to see more data.
Back to decline, but optimism for 2027?
Meanwhile, the loading figures have returned to contraction in September and October: -1.2% and -1.4% respectively. It seems probable that RZD will end up underperforming compared to its initial 2026 projections, dating back to January. The operator hoped to move 1.132 billion tonnes of freight, but it will need to outperform in November and December to reach that target.
The Russian publication Rollingstock Agency predicted that the overall loading volume in 2027 will equal between 1.12 and 1.16 billion tonnes. This would mean modest annual growth, which should be driven by coal and fertilisers.