The Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are testing the resilience of Middle Eastern trade routes at the same time. Attacks on shipping, threats to energy infrastructure and doubts over maritime security are pushing operators to rethink their routes, vessel availability and insurance exposure. Even where commercial traffic continues, moving cargo has become more complicated and more expensive.
The Red Sea has deteriorated quickly. The Houthis, who declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia in July, seized Yemen’s Red Sea coast as far south as Bab el-Mandeb in early September. On 10 October, a Houthi missile struck a passenger terminal at Riyadh’s King Khalid airport, killing at least 12 people. Even so, some container lines are heading back to the route.
Oil shows how far diversification has gone. According to Kpler, about 40% of Gulf crude now leaves without crossing Hormuz, compared with 17% before the war. In September, 60% of regional crude exports, or 9.9 million barrels per day, still passed through the strait. Another 23% loaded on the Gulf of Oman coast, mainly at Fujairah, and 17% left through the Red Sea. That points to more export routes, not to the end of maritime risk. Rail’s role is the harder question, and the past few weeks have made it more pressing.
Rail moved first, trucks moved most
Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline offers an alternative outlet through Yanbu, while the UAE’s Abu Dhabi to Fujairah pipeline lets crude leave outside Hormuz. Pipelines, however, cannot do the same for containerized goods and general freight.
For those cargoes, trucks are doing most of the immediate work. Goods diverted to ports such as Fujairah and Sohar still have to reach inland distribution centers and neighboring markets. Jeddah and Aqaba offer alternative Red Sea gateways, although their usefulness depends on maritime security, terminal capacity and inland connections.
Trucks can respond quickly to shifting cargo flows, but longer distances raise fuel consumption, vehicle requirements and border handling costs. Rail can carry larger volumes of containers on established corridors, yet missing links and limited port integration keep it from absorbing much of the diverted traffic across the region.
In the UAE, Etihad Rail Freight has redirected intermodal capacity to east-coast ports. In September, it launched a Fujairah to Abu Dhabi service covering roughly 200 kilometres, with three departures per week. In Saudi Arabia, the railways carried 3.9 million tons of freight and 46,300 containers in the third quarter of 2026, and SAR has opened a 1,700 km container corridor from Gulf ports to the Jordanian border, with trains carrying more than 400 containers each.
Rail projects are advancing, but not fast enough
Deeper integration is still years away, and new lines will not arrive in time. The 238-km Hafeet Rail link, which will connect Sohar to the UAE network through Al Buraimi and Al Ain, was 40% complete in April. Track installation has since begun as work shifts from major civil construction to railway infrastructure, and Oman’s transport minister says trial operations will start in the fourth quarter of 2027. Once running, the line could improve access between an Indian Ocean port and inland Gulf markets and reduce reliance on road transport along that corridor.
The Saudi-UAE memorandum signed in October frames cross-border freight, but neither starts construction nor sets an operating date. The wider GCC Railway and other national expansions could strengthen cross-border freight in the same way. But construction alone will not create a seamless logistics system. Compatible technical standards, coordinated customs procedures, adequate terminal capacity and reliable port-to-rail connections matter just as much. Until then, the realistic levers are the existing ones: more Etihad Rail slots, inland customs clearance, better port-to-rail connections, extra handling capacity at diversion ports, and combined road and rail moves.
Resilience depends on connecting existing infrastructure
Expanding container handling at alternative ports, improving access to inland terminals, running rail services more frequently and coordinating road and rail transfers could help operators absorb additional cargo. Oil has already demonstrated how this can work.
When an attack halted loadings at Yanbu, volumes shifted to Juaymah on the Gulf coast, and Yanbu resumed operations around 10 days later. Confirmed Saudi crude passing through Hormuz rose from 0.7 million barrels per day in August to 2.8 million in September. No single route held, but the network did. Rail has yet to earn that kind of role for containers between Sohar and the UAE, and until Hafeet opens, it cannot.