Freight trains connecting China and Europe via the Middle Corridor continue to experience massive growth, with their number on par to more than double in 2026 compared to last year. At the same time, there remain a few obstacles that might hinder further growth and fuel distrust among shippers.
The number of trains running from China to Europe along the Middle Corridor reached 746 in the first nine months of this year, a 125% increase compared to the same period in 2025, according to Chinese media. A similar trend was confirmed by Kazakh Railways, albeit focussing on the first six months of the year. The company said that 419 convoys ran through the corridor, almost twice as much as the first half of 2025 (228 trains).
This massive growth is mostly linked to the fact that the Middle Corridor is a very recent initiative. The support it is gathering should not be underestimated, but the numbers show that it only carries a tiny fraction of all the China-Europe rail freight volumes. For example, at the current rate there will be roughly 1,000 trains running on the trans-Caspian route, while there were 1,965 trains between China and Europe only in May 2026.
Russian route still faster
In other words, the vast majority of shippers still relies on the routes going through Russia, which can guarantee much faster transit times. Sabina Asadova, Director of Regional Development for the CIS, Turkey, and Georgia at LV Logistics, told Azerbaijani media Media.az that moving cargo via the Middle Corridor currently takes 40 days, while via Russia it takes half the time.
Some of the issues highlighted by Asadova were tariff increases not leading to improved service quality and delays linked to ports. The shippers choosing the Middle Corridor, she argued, are doing so because of the EU sanctions on Russia. But for those that are less impacted by these sanctions, the route through Moscow remains the first choice.
The Caspian Sea problem
Another bottleneck along the Middle Corridor has almost nothing to do with rail freight. The water levels of the Caspian Sea are dropping by somewhere between seven and 20 centimetres every year. This phenomenon is causing two significant problems, one immediate and one for the near future.
The immediate problem is that vessels cannot carry as much weight as they usually do. When water levels drop, ships have less room to float. If they are too heavy and the water is too shallow, they will sink. Companies are already reportedly loading vessels at 80% capacity.
This means it will take more journeys to carry the same volumes and that each journey gets more expensive, as operators still need to make ends meet. One of the measures implemented by operators active in the Caspian Sea is to buy more vessels. KTZ Express Shipping and Kazmortransflot are both planning to buy container, dry cargo and multipurpose ships.
The second and more long-term problem is that the receding shoreline will leave ports, offshore oil fields and marine protected areas on the Caspian Sea stranded. To fix this, major ports such as Aktau and Kuryk are trying to dredge the Sea and try to maintain an artificially-created depth of six to eight metres. However, a concrete and final solution to battle this problem has not yet been found.