Freight forwarders are in for a challenging second half of 2026. As the world very much looks forward to careful global stabilisation following an Iran-US peace deal, forwarders should be careful to rejoice too much, too soon.
The warning to freight forwarders in particular is issued by Oliver Gritz, founder and CEO of OntegosCloud, a forwarder profitability platform. If the US and Iran succeed in concluding a peace deal, the operating environment for logistics companies could develop favourably.
A restabilisation of global shipping would be welcomed universally. Yet, freight forwarders should not hurry to pop the champagne. They may be underestimating the challenges awaiting them, according to Gritz.
Stability misconception
“There’s a common assumption that when disruption declines, profitability improves”, explained Gritz. “In reality, some of the greatest pressure on margins can emerge during the transition from volatility to stability.”
“For example, a customer may expect freight costs to fall as soon as geopolitical tensions ease and insurance markets begin to stabilise. However, the forwarder may still be operating with elevated insurance premiums, higher fuel prices, disruption-related contingencies, repositioning costs and contractual commitments negotiated during a more volatile period. When customer expectations adjust faster than operating costs, the result is often margin compression rather than margin recovery”, Gritz elaborated.
Since the underlying transportation cost structures take longer to adjust to new circumstances, freight forwarders should be careful to let go of their previously adopted commercial discipline. They still need to pay close attention to pricing, margin management and cost recovery.
Challenges
OntegosCloud identifies four key commercial challenges for H2 2026:
- Margin compression: Customer expectations for lower costs will likely faster than operating expenses.
- Profitability visibility: Forwarders should shift their focus from operational disruption management to insight into shipment and customer-level profitability to inform decisions.
- Revenue recovery: Complex billing and surcharges from earlier disruptions lead to a risk of revenue losses, if not properly managed.
- Delayed cash recovery: Finances will remain pressured by unresolved receivables and disputes carried over from H1.
“The strongest performers in H2 will not necessarily be the organisations operating in the most stable markets”, according to Gritz. “They will be the organisations that maintain commercial discipline as conditions improve. The ability to protect margins, recover revenue consistently and convert operational recovery into financial performance may become a much more important differentiator than many expect.”