Recent progress and prospect of a brisker pace on the Middle Corridor was outlined during The Caspian at a Crossroads Webinar — What to Watch in 2026 on January 22, organised by the Caspian Policy Center as multiple initiatives move on. Central Asia is becoming much more important, especially given its formidable energy resources with governments in the region keen to link into the world economy, Samuel Doveri Vesterbye, Managing Director, European Neighbourhood Council (ENC) highlighted.
“This region is particularly important for connectivity”, said Vesterbye, “connectivity in terms of road, train of course and digital infrastructure as well.” This, he added, applied to both East-West as well as North-South traffic. One particular driver of late is the wish of middle powers such as Kazakhstan wishing to connect with the world economy to avoid being “squashed” as he put it by superpowers such as Russia and China.
There is some economic meat on this with an EPCA (Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement) signed back in 2015 between the EU and Kazakhstan seeing the EU become Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner. Uzbekistan, said Versterbye signed a similar agreement in October last year, putting them on a similar trajectory for the EU becoming its biggest trade partner in five to ten years time.
Also helping matters at the other end of supply chains the European Union is increasingly willing to invest, and heavily, in creating supply chains which are outside sanctionable countries such as Russia or where there is conflict. Vesterbye pointed to two recent investor forums, one late last year, which has seen 20 billion (he did not specify whether dollars or Euros) being invested in Central Asia. He pointed out, citing the EBRD as his source, the region’s need for 16 billion (again no currency specified) to create the necessary transport infrastructure.
‘800,000 TEUs by 2040’
This would help container traffic rise to “well above” 800,000 TEUs by 2040 he said, dramatically up from last year’s 100,000 and even more so on the less than 20,000 TEUs logged before the Ukraine war. “So that’s a little bit the projections and it’s also a little bit what the EU has been investing and what it’s doing”, said Vesterbye. Within that, though, are some strong ideas as to what will need to be moved. At this stage in the game consumer goods, especially with shipping rates about to fall sharply, seem unlikely.
The Caspian’s energy resources are generating interest and not just oil and gas reserves but the surrounding steppe makes it cost effective for solar power. Hydrocarbons are not likely to be forgotten. “We have to think about alternative supply routes for oil and gas”, said Benjamin Godwin, Partner with consultancy PRISM Strategic Intelligence who also added uranium as a potential export. Critical materials and rare earths are another reason for the region’s keenness to trade. Both of these are globally needed but there is particularly strong interest nearby.
“So much of this is coming from China”, Godwin said. Overhanging this optimism some concerns. One is the risk of conflicts such as that between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Also cited here was the possibility of Armenia’s parliamentary elections due to be held on 7 June 2026 being disrupted. Months ahead of the polls opening accusations of interventions are being made ironically one is by Russia who fears EU involvement.
East-West imbalance
One industry challenge flagged outside the webinar is the development of efficient, predictable eastbound delivery, said Emil Mammadov, an advisor to Azerbaijan Railways (ADY) chairman, said via Report news agency. Westbound flows are growing year by year and there is “strong interest” in European partners to develop it the other way and this needs to be acted upon promptly with 2026 being the year to turn this interest into real eastbound volume, according to Mammadov. “From alignment to execution and from corridor to two-way demand”, he urged.
The Almaty bypass
The biggest initiative to date is Kazakhstan’s state-owned railway operator, KTZ getting 252 million euros in financing from a consortium of the International Finance Corporation, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and Standard Chartered. This will pay for the construction of the 130-kilometer electrified Almaty Railway Bypass. “The bypass is expected to reduce congestion around Almaty by more than 40 %, cut delivery times by up to 24 hours, and improve freight flows along the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor (TCTC)”, IFC said in a statement.
“The Almaty Railway Bypass will be a pivotal upgrade for our network, unlocking capacity and reducing congestion around Almaty. It will enable KTZ to handle growing long-haul freight volumes more efficiently, strengthen the resilience of regional logistics, and enhance the competitiveness of the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor as a reliable bridge between Asia and Europe”, said Dair Kusherov, Chief Financial Officer of KTZ.
