China-Europe rail freight has been plagued by uncertainty and abrupt shifts in the past five years. Pessimists underscored the gradual decline in market share and increased competition from maritime transport, while optimists highlighted the bright side: Eurasian rail’s niche competitive advantage. It seems that the ‘bright side’ is brighter than anticipated, and that’s due to three factors: political commitment, efficient and full rail timetables, and, in fact, a departure from the mindset of maritime-rail competition.
It would be naive to claim that China-Europe rail stands where it stood five years ago. The Covid-19 pandemic saw a surge in freight trains traversing the Eurasian continent, and the future looked promising–until it didn’t anymore.
The geopolitical factors contributing to the gloomy picture drawn between 2022 and today are well known and require no further introduction or analysis. Despite some brief upticks in rail traffic and volumes resulting from disruptions in sea shipping, Eurasian rail remained flat in terms of development and growth. Flat remained also the sentiment regarding the industry’s future, to say the least.
Nevertheless, the patience and agility shown by operators and forwarders during this time, and the not-so-loud but gradual, methodical and targeted evolution of the corridor, are now becoming visible, all the more after some recent developments in late November.
Commitment as strong as ever
During the European Silk Road Summit 2025, organised by RailFreight.com in Milan, several things stood out from the fruitful discussions and exchanges. To avoid an extensive list, let’s focus on two highlights and see how they correlate with the latest news from China.
Highlight number one concerned the competition with maritime transport. Decreasing rates and overcapacity could mean Eurasian rail’s market share shrinks in the coming decade. However, this might not be the case if things are put into perspective. China-Europe rail was never intended to compete directly with maritime transport. Instead, as many conference participants underlined, its competitive advantage lies in serving niche, high-value markets that require fast transit times and safety rather than competitive prices.
Highlight number two, and probably the most important, is that no matter the competition, China’s political commitment to developing Eurasian rail is as strong as ever. That was underscored by Yingnan Yao, China-Europe business analyst, who explained that China will not simply give up on its Belt and Road Initiative goals due to a series of hiccups. On the contrary, Chinese policy is fully focused on developing Eurasian rail routes and trade, and since this commitment is in place, Silk Road rail will continue to flourish.
Full timetables prove commitment
While those discussions were taking place in a conference centre in Milan, the second China Railway Express Cooperation Forum was held in Xi’an, and this forum brought forward some news. To put it simply, for some time now, China has been moving away from dispatching westbound freight trains at random and has implemented a fixed, full timetable with predictable booking, departure, and transit times.
The critical development in this case is that the timetable was just enriched with seven new routes, as seen below. These updates bring the total to seventeen scheduled China–Europe freight services. Each year, over a thousand trains operate on set timetables, connecting nine cities in China with six destinations in Europe.
- Zhengzhou – Hamburg
- Xi’an – Prague
- Jinan – Budapest
- Chongqing – Budapest
- Xi’an – Budapest
- Changsha – Poznań
- Shijiazhuang – Warsaw
Does this development indicate a shrinking or growing market? In moderate terms, it might not indicate an aggressively growing market, but it could signal a market that is here to stay and will provide stability and more options for its customers.
Forget maritime competition
During the second China Railway Express Cooperation Forum, Nguyen Chinh Nam, deputy general director of Vietnam Railways Corporation, commented that “the rapid development of China-Europe freight trains expands international logistics capacity, offering diversified transport options and reducing reliance on maritime routes”.
At the same time, Guo Zhuxue, chairman of China State Railway Group, underlined that operating with full timetables has reduced travel time by over 30% on average, while also cutting rail rates by over 40% since the service’s inception. And customers are happy because of that, as voiced by Yuan Gen, vice general manager of Shaanxi Konka Smart Home Appliance Co., Ltd., a regular China-Europe rail customer who has seen rail slashing shipping time from 45 days by sea to just one or two weeks, accounting currently for over 60% of the company’s export volume.
Other industries benefiting similarly include new energy vehicles and machinery, for example, and, in general, high-value cargo. All in all, the message in this case is quite clear. Forget maritime competition and focus on critical industries that are here to stay and benefit from premium rail service.
Rail will not overtake maritime transport, and as mentioned before, this is not the aim. The aim is to function as a constantly developing transport and trade backbone, a great alternative, but most importantly, the first option for industries that really matter. And if everything goes according to plan, it will eventually become the first choice for more customers.