Data of the week: Overland rates rise as maritime markets weaken

In October 2025, the Maxmodal Silk Road Index (MSRI) continued its steady upward trend, increasing by 1.23% for 20-foot containers and 0.91% for 40-foot containers. Growth was driven primarily by higher rates along the Kashgar–Andijan corridor, where seasonal demand and temporary weather-related delays pushed prices higher.

In contrast, the newly introduced Maxmodal Suez Canal Index (MSCI) — which tracks combined deep-sea and rail connections via the Suez Canal — declined by 1.82% (20’) and 2.01% (40’), reflecting weakness in deep-sea freight markets, subdued European imports and vessel overcapacity.

The rate spread between MSRI and MSCI widened further, highlighting diverging trends between resilient overland corridors and declining maritime rates.

Central Asia leads growth in overland freight

The China Border–Caspian section accounted for nearly all MSRI growth in October, contributing almost 98% of the total index expansion. This was largely due to a 14% rise in rates on the Kashgar–Andijan route, where stronger seasonal demand and higher cross-border service costs pushed up prices. According to UzContargo Andijon: “Despite brief weather-related delays in the mountain passes, truck availability remained sufficient, ensuring stable service reliability across the corridor”.

Other inland and Caspian segments, including Alat–Poti, Altynkol–Aktau and Akhalkalaki–Duisburg, saw smaller gains, while Black Sea–linked routes experienced moderate declines (–8.7%) due to weak maritime markets.

Maritime weakness drags down the MSCI

The MSCI fell sharply in October, primarily due to persistent softness on Asia–Europe deep-sea routes. Rates dropped to USD 3,022 (20’) and USD 4,225 (40’) per container. The Shenzhen–Antwerp (33%), Shenzhen–Hamburg (29%), and Shanghai–Rotterdam (17%) routes were the main contributors to the decline.

Deep-sea reductions dominated overall movements, while inland European connections such as Antwerp–Duisburg (–24%) and Rotterdam–Duisburg (–10%) provided limited stability through steady rail and terminal operations. Overall, deep-sea rates remain under heavy pressure from overcapacity and muted European demand.

Regional performance

• Caspian and South Caucasus: Ports such as Turkmenbashi and Aktau saw small, offsetting rate changes — a sign of overall stability in the Caspian region. Meanwhile, Alat–Poti and Akhalkalaki–Duisburg reported minor cost increases of 1–3%, linked to infrastructure and energy costs.
• Black Sea and Central Europe: Rates across the Black Sea softened slightly, with Poti–Constanța and Poti–Istanbul routes falling by up to 2.5%. Inland routes such as Constanța–Duisburg eased by around 2%, reflecting improved equipment availability and stable throughput across hubs like Duisburg and Istanbul.
• Middle vs South Corridor: Both the Middle Corridor (via Kazakhstan and the Caspian) and the South Corridor (via Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) recorded growth. The South Corridor expanded more sharply due to stronger performance on the Kashgar–Andijan and Andijan–Turkmenbashi segments. However, the Middle Corridor remains structurally more competitive, benefiting from lower costs, greater connectivity and improvements under the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) initiative.

Most competitive routes

The most competitive rail–sea routes from China to Duisburg in October remained those via Dostyk and Altynkol, via Poti and Constanța, where rates were up to 27% lower than the route via Kashgar.

For example:

• Shanghai–Duisburg via Dostyk–Poti–Constanța: USD 9,828 (27% price advantage)
• Guangzhou–Duisburg via Altynkol–Akhalkalaki: USD 10,001 (26% price advantage)

By contrast, routes via Kashgar maintained higher price levels, averaging USD 13,000–13,500, underlining the east–west rate divergence across Eurasian corridors.

Full report is available on https://index.maxmodal.com/