The share of inland shipping in the Rhine corridor modal split is declining. That is despite incentive programs and successes, such as the transport of a million tons of sugar beets. Rail, on the other hand, is gaining ground.
While container transshipment in Rotterdam and Antwerp is growing, inland shipping is lagging behind. The shift is particularly significant in shipping on the Rhine river, with a decline of more than 52 per cent since 2017, according to an analysis by Dutch inland shipping expert Wouter van der Geest.
Say the words “modal shift” and everyone thinks of containers. There is no submarket in the inland shipping sector where the choice of modalities can be changed so easily. Competition is fierce between inland shipping, rail, and truck transport.
Recent annual figures from the Antwerp and Rotterdam ports show increased container transshipment, but inland shipping hasn’t profited from it. Despite Dutch incentives, inland shipping’s market share is declining due to strong road transport competition and reliability issues from low water levels and infrastructure failures. Rail freight faces similar challenges, with minimal growth in intermodal transport.
Major modal shift to rail for Middle and Upper Rhine destinations
Nevertheless, rail is winning out big time on one corridor in particular. There has been a huge modal shift from inland shipping to rail in Rhine shipping. In 2017, the inland shipping sector transported more than 785,000 TEU to terminals along the Middle Rhine, such as Mainz, Gernsheim, Worms, Mannheim, Germersheim and Karlsruhe.
Due to the low water levels in 2018, the flow of goods collapsed and the lost freight was not returned. In 2019, only 553,000 TEU was shipped and after the low water levels in 2022, only 386,000 TEU was transported in 2023. Last year also showed a decline to 379,000 TEU. Over the entire period between 2017 and 2023, this means a decrease of more than 52 per cent.
We see the same picture for the Upper Rhine. Over this route of more than 170 kilometers we see multimodal transshipment terminals in Lauterbourg, Strasbourg and Kehl, Ottmarsheim, Weil am Rhein and Basel. In 2017, 378,000 TEU was transported to these terminals, 141,000 TEU of this was left in 2024. This means a decrease of more than 63 per cent.
In the same period, container transport by train between Rotterdam and Southwest Germany increased by more than 50 per cent and the weight transported with containers on the relationship between Southwest Germany and the ARA seaports increased tenfold. But to the Mannheim/Ludwigshafen region, rail transport also decreased significantly, which in that region mainly indicates lower economic activity and not so much a negative modal shift.
Loss of coal flows causes decline
In 2016, inland shipping’s share of the modal split was 32,7 per cent, dropping to 32,4 per cent by 2023. This shift is due to differences in freight composition. Inland shipping transports significant amounts of wet bulk, coal, and ores, while road transport focuses on agricultural products, foodstuffs, and consumer goods.
The energy transition allows road transport to grow faster than inland shipping. The closure of German coal-fired power stations has reduced river traffic on the Waal but hasn’t decreased truck traffic on the A15 [highway].
This edited article was originally published by our sister publication Schuttevaer.