Combined transport (CT) volumes in Europe fell by 1.23% in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year, according to UIRR. After a brief stabilisation in the spring, the sector is back in negative territory, and its members now expect a negative business climate for the next 12 months.
UIRR said in its latest quarterly newsletter that the economic environment for CT deteriorated further between July and September. Some members still see positive prospects, but the wider European situation “does not leave much room for optimism in the short term”, the association said.
The causes are familiar: German corridors running at minimum capacity, extremely low water levels on the Rhine that disrupted terminals as well as barges, inadequate alternative routes and rising track access charges. All of this comes on top of low economic growth and high inflation.
A short-lived recovery
The third-quarter figure ends a brief recovery. The year started with a 4.92% drop in consignments in the first quarter, which UIRR attributed to intermodal trains not being given adequate bypass routes around fully closed lines in Germany and elsewhere. At the same time, the weak economy freed up trucking capacity, making a switch back to road an easy choice for shippers.
The second quarter then closed with a modest increase of 0.29%. “This is a relatively strong result considering the severe headwinds that the sector faces”, UIRR said in August. Growth came mostly from France, where authorities continue to promote CT and fund intermodal equipment, as well as from Poland and the Baltic states. Germany and Italy, two of the largest markets for intermodal transport, held back the overall result.
In other words, two of the first three quarters of 2026 ended below last year’s levels, and the only positive one was barely above zero. Sentiment followed a similar path: UIRR members rated the outlook as slightly negative in both the first and second quarters, while it is now negative for the period up to 30 September 2027.
Germany remains the main problem
According to UIRR, Deutsche Bahn has acknowledged that the roll-out of its Generalsanierung corridor renovation programme was either too ambitious or not properly thought through. The association pointed to the Hannover–Berlin corridor as an example. Works started on 2 October, but the diversion plan had to be redesigned because the original alternative line will not be electrified before December 2027.
Costs are also set to rise. Track access charges in Germany will increase by around 12% in 2027, while DB InfraGO’s provisional application for 2028 foresees a jump of 85% for very heavy trains and 6.6% for regular ones. UIRR continues to claim compensation for the substandard diversion routes.
Some reasons for hope
The association also criticised the European Commission, which it argues does not seem aware of the urgency of reviving rail freight. The association is pushing for a cross-border freight strategy that would give intermodal transport a more prominent role. However, the sector is not standing still. UIRR highlighted steady investment in Spain and continued momentum in France.
In Germany, chemicals group BASF has started a €100-plus expansion of the KTL terminal in Ludwigshafen, one of the country’s largest multimodal hubs, due for completion in 2028. For now, the industry itself does not seem to expect such projects to offset the infrastructure problems in the short term.