Freight rail traffic in the United States continued to strengthen during the second quarter of 2026, with both carload and intermodal volumes extending a sustained period of year-on-year growth. According to the latest quarterly industry overview from the Association of American Railroads (AAR), six consecutive months of carload growth and five months of intermodal gains suggest freight demand is entering the second half of the year with increasing momentum.
The AAR said growth is becoming more widely distributed across commodity sectors, indicating a more durable expansion in freight activity. Manufacturing output, industrial shipments and agricultural traffic all strengthened during the first half of the year, while the organisation said freight demand now rests on broader underlying fundamentals than at the beginning of 2026 despite continuing economic uncertainty.
Growth spreads across freight markets
June saw average weekly intermodal volumes reach a new monthly record, while average weekly carloads were the highest recorded since May 2021. Total carloads increased compared with the same month last year for a sixth consecutive month. Intermodal traffic recorded its fifth successive monthly increase. Fourteen of the twenty principal carload commodity groups reported year-on-year growth during June, with several recording their strongest performance of the year.
The breadth of the recovery is becoming increasingly significant, according to the AAR. “Rail is not the economy, but it remains one of the clearest real time indicators of activity across the goods producing sector,” the Association explained. “While uncertainty around inflation, trade policy, and other factors remains, the cumulative evidence from rail traffic points to an economy that is entering the second half of the year with solid momentum.”
The improvement also widened during the second quarter. Excluding coal, carloads reached their highest level since August 2018, while sixteen of the twenty major commodity groups expanded during the quarter, representing the broadest quarterly advance since the post-pandemic recovery. Total second-quarter carloads were the highest since late 2019, while intermodal established another monthly record and year-to-date container volumes reached new quarterly and first-half highs.
Intermodal and manufacturing reinforce demand
While the industry’s attention has remained fixed on the UP – NS merger saga, it has been business as usual on the tracks. Intermodal traffic continued to benefit from a combination of favourable market conditions. Strong rail service, rising road haulage costs, resilient consumer spending and imports brought forward ahead of possible trade policy changes all contributed to higher volumes.
“Intermodal continues to benefit from a favourable combination of factors,” noted the AAR. “Rail service remains strong, trucking has become more expensive, consumer spending continues to support goods movement, and some imports have likely been pulled forward ahead of possible trade policy changes. With the seasonal peak still ahead, intermodal could remain a source of strength during the second half of the year.”
Manufacturing indicators also aligned more closely with rail traffic during the first half of 2026. June marked the sixth consecutive month that the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) remained above 50, while manufacturing output reached its highest level for more than three years. The AAR’s own bespoke measurement tool – the Freight Rail Index – also climbed to its second-highest level on record, reflecting stronger economically sensitive freight movements.
Agriculture adds further support
Industrial traffic showed continued improvement across several commodity groups. Chemical shipments increased year on year for a sixth consecutive month and reached a first-half record. Primary metal products recorded a second successive annual increase, reaching their highest level in almost five years, while iron and steel scrap traffic rose to levels not seen for more than fifteen years. Petroleum products, lumber, food products, and stone, clay and glass products also reported sustained gains.
Agricultural traffic remained another significant source of demand. Grain carloads increased by eleven per cent during June, representing the twenty-seventh increase in the past thirty months. First-half grain volumes reached their highest level since 1990, supported by export demand and domestic processing, while grain mill products also established new monthly and first-half records. Although the US Department of Agriculture expects lower corn and wheat production during the remainder of the year, stronger soybean output, exports and processing activity are expected to continue underpinning rail demand.
The wider economic picture remains mixed, the AAR concluded. “Economic data continue to send mixed signals,” it said. “Housing remains weak, inflation remains elevated, and policy uncertainty has not disappeared. At the same time, manufacturing has strengthened, freight volumes continue to improve, and consumer spending has remained more resilient than many expected. The recent improvement in freight demand has lasted longer, reached more commodities, and become more consistent than many expected just a few months ago.”