US rail freight ended 2025 on an uneven note, as weakening intermodal volumes tempered modest annual growth across the wider network. Figures from the Association of American Railroads (AAR) show December intermodal traffic falling for a fourth consecutive month year on year, highlighting the sector’s exposure to softer consumer demand. Carload volumes also declined in December, reflecting patchy industrial conditions as US manufacturing remained in contraction.
Even so, full-year data point to resilience rather than retrenchment. Total rail volumes in 2025 increased slightly compared with 2024, supported by gains in selected commodities including grain, steel and cars (of course, referred to as ‘autos’ by the Association). The AAR says prospects for 2026 will depend heavily on household spending power, labour market stability and interest rates, with intermodal traffic continuing to act as a proxy for consumer confidence.
Intermodal softens as year ends
US rail intermodal volume fell 3.4% in December 2025 compared with the same month a year earlier, extending a run of year-on-year declines to four months, noted the AAR. While still negative, the December result was marked an improvement on November’s steeper fall. The industry body sees the health of rail freight as closely tied to the economy at large. “Growth in 2026 will depend largely on how well consumer spending holds up, which in turn will be impacted by whether the labour market softens,” they said.
On a full-year basis, intermodal performance was more encouraging. US railroads handled 14.06 million containers and trailers in 2025, up 1.5% on 2024 and the second-highest total on record. Container volumes alone reached a record 13.65 million units. The AAR noted that “rail intermodal shipments are closely tied to consumer spending,” leaving 2026 volumes exposed to inflation trends, incomes and borrowing costs.
Carloads reflect uneven industrial demand
Total US rail carloads (wagonload freight in European parlance) fell 2.3% in December, marking their third year-on-year decline in the final four months of 2025. Seven of the twenty major commodity groups tracked by the AAR posted gains, led by grain, steel-related products and cars. These were offset by declines in chemicals, metallic ores and construction materials such as crushed stone and sand.
For the year as a whole, total carloads rose 1.5% compared with 2024, the strongest annual increase since 2021. The AAR linked the muted pace of growth to sluggish manufacturing output, warning that “to the extent output remains sluggish in 2026, rail carload volumes will remain under pressure.” Carloads excluding coal still reached their highest level since 2019.
Commodities send mixed signals
Commodity data reinforced the mixed picture. Grain volumes strengthened further, with December carloads up 2.9% year on year and full-year volumes rising 5.2%, driven primarily by higher US exports. Chemicals ended the year on a weaker footing, with December volumes down sharply amid soft housing demand, auto-sector uncertainty and higher input costs tied to natural gas prices.
Steel-related traffic provided a clear bright spot. Primary metal carloads rose 2.0% in December and finished 2025 up 3.2%, while iron and steel scrap volumes reached their highest level since 2008. Coal also saw modest improvement, with 2025 carloads up 3.1%, although the AAR cautioned that US coal production and consumption are forecast to fall again in 2026.