Industrial power shapes logistics power. Germany’s export economy supported the rise of DHL Global Forwarding and DB Schenker. Japan’s manufacturing expansion underpinned Nippon Express. As China upgrades its manufacturing industries and strengthens control over supply chains, powerful Chinese logistics providers with global footprints will emerge. What does this mean for the European logistics market? An analysis.
About the Author
Originally from Nanjing, China, Yingnan Yao came to Europe in 2006 for higher education and has since built her career at the intersection of Europe and China. With more than 13 years of experience in international rail logistics, she has focused on cross-border business development and partnership building, and has been closely involved in the development of the New Silk Road.
Yao brings deep insight into the logistics footprint Chinese companies are building in Europe. Today, she is Head of Business Development Asia Desk at GARBE Industrial, supporting Chinese and other Asian occupiers as they expand their warehousing and industrial footprint across Europe. A graduate of the University of Oxford, she also writes and advises on Sino-European cooperation in logistics and green transition.
When logistics follows industry again – this time from China
In 1984, six years after China launched economic reform, Volkswagen established its first joint ventures in China. That marked the beginning of decades of successful European industrial engagement with the Chinese market.
Two years later, in December 1986, DHL Express followed the same path, forming a joint venture with Sinotrans. CEVA Logistics started active operation in China around the same period.
Logistics followed industry. As European multinationals sourced from China and sold into the Chinese market, European forwarders followed their customers. They built networks, navigated regulation and became deeply embedded in their customers’ global supply chains. Over time, China has became one of the most strategically important logistics markets.
A similar dynamic is emerging again. This time, the direction runs from east to west.
Industrial upgrading and the export shift
China’s exports surplus surpassed one trillion US dollars in 2025, underlining its continued central role in global trade. Europe remains a key destination, alongside Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East and Türkiye.
The structure of exports has changed. Electric vehicles, batteries, renewable energy equipment and advanced machinery now account for a growing share of export value. These sectors were explicitly prioritised in the 2015 “Made in China 2025” strategy. The objective was clear: move up the value chain and reduce reliance on imported core technologies.
A decade later, the shift has become visible, mostly in the automotive sector. China has been the world’s largest car exporter in volume since 2023. In parallel, German carmakers’ combined sales in China have declined markedly from their 2021 peak, with total volumes down by double digits by 2025. BMW was particularly affected, with China sales falling roughly 25–27% over the same period.
In fact, according to Merics, a think-tank Berlin, the number of product categories primarily sourced from the US and EU has halved over the past two decades. This structural transformation has direct implications for logistics.
Outbound freight volumes are reinforced by higher-value industrial exports. On the China–Europe rail corridor, for instance, the imbalance between westbound and eastbound flows has widened since 2023. That year, for every eastbound container to China, roughly 1.8 containers moved westbound. In early 2024, the ratio rose to 4.8. By 2025, it approached 7.
Similar trends can be observed across multiple modes and lanes. Such asymmetry affects pricing dynamics, equipment reposition and corridor economics. If Chinese manufacturing continues to expand in Europe-facing sectors, this imbalance is unlikely to reverse in the near term.
Chinese companies expanding into Europe
Chinese products are not the only ones moving westward. Their producers are expanding into Europe as well. Trade tensions with the United States, EU anti-subsidy measures and intense domestic price competition have accelerated Chinese overseas investment.
CATL and BYD are building factories in Hungary. JD.com has moved to acquire control of Ceconomy, the parent of MediaMarkt and Saturn in Germany. Consumer brands such as Pop Mart have opened retail stores in London, Rome, Berlin and Amsterdam.
As Chinese industries expand into Europe, logistics providers follow. Just as DHL, Kuehne+Nagel and Schenker followed European manufacturers into China decades ago.
Major players such as state-owned COSCO Shipping and Sinotrans, together with Cainiao and JD Logistics, are expanding their European presence. Investments and long-term leases are visible in port terminals, warehousing facilities, distribution centres and last-mile networks. These moves support both market entry and manufacturing setups.
Implications for European rail and forwarding
For European forwarders, this represents a structural shift rather than a temporary market cycle.
In the past, a significant share of freight volumes were controlled by European manufacturers and buyers, particularly in industrial and automotive supply chains. Procurement decisions were made in European headquarters, and European forwarders benefited from established customer relations and alignment.
Today, Chinese companies increasingly drive logistics demand. Procurement power is gradually shifting from European to Chinese headquarters.
In the short term, international forwarders with established pan-European networks remain essential. Regulatory complexity, customs procedures and labour frameworks require local expertise.
Over the medium term, competitive dynamics may evolve. Chinese exporters may prefer logistics partners aligned with their language, digital systems and decision-making speed, particularly when service quality and pricing are comparable.
At the same time, Europe’s fragmented and highly regulated logistics environment creates natural barriers to rapid market capture. This opens space for both competition and cooperation.
Invest early – secure your position
When DHL entered China, it relied on Sinotrans to navigate regulation and build local networks. Chinese logistics companies expanding into Europe now face a similar reality. They bring volume, capital and close ties to headquarters in China. They will need local partners who can provide regulatory depth, network density and established customer relationships.
Those who invest early in understanding China’s industrial strategy, corporate expansion patterns and business culture may secure long-term positioning on both ends of the trade lanes.
Not every European logistics company had the opportunity to enter China in the 1980s. This time, the strategic engagement may happen at home.