The Maxmodal Silk Road Index (MSRI) and the Maxmodal Suez Canal Index (MSCI) both increased in November 2025, with western Black Sea–Europe routes driving most of the overland gains while deep-sea repricing pushed up Suez-linked rates. The MSRI rose by 0.78% for 20-foot containers and 0.80% for 40-foot units, whereas the MSCI jumped by 7.94% and 9.33% respectively.
The findings point to a month of diverging dynamics: steady, corridor-specific improvements along the Eurasian landbridge, and a sharp ocean-driven rebound on the Suez route. For shippers and forwarders active on China–Europe corridors, the data suggests renewed competitiveness of Black Sea rail–sea options and a narrowing gap between the Middle Corridor and southern routings.
Black Sea corridors provide most of the Silk Road uplift
The western end of the Silk Road was the clear driver of MSRI growth in November. Black Sea–Central Europe connections accounted for more than 80% of all index movement, supported by higher inland demand and improved short-sea stability. The Black Sea region itself contributed a further 22.2%.
By contrast, the Caspian and South Caucasus segments weighed on the index. Seasonal weather disruptions, cancelled sailings, and softer westbound flows pushed Caspian crossings down by 7.7%, while the South Caucasus dipped by 5.7%.
Despite these headwinds, both Silk Road corridors grew. The Middle Corridor rose by 0.9% and the South Corridor by 0.6%, narrowing their spread and confirming that rate strength was concentrated in Europe-facing legs rather than inland Central Asia.
Deep-sea repricing dominates Suez Index surge
The MSCI increase was driven almost entirely by deep-sea freight. The deep-sea leg accounted for 98.8% of the monthly movement, while inland elements — China pre-carriage (+2.9%) and Europe on-carriage (–1.7%) — cancelled each other out.
Asia–North Europe spot rates saw tactical price increases of around 18–22% compared with October. According to the report, this shift reflected carriers re-anchoring the market from a low base rather than any major change in fundamentals. Inland trucking, port handling and rail-to-hinterland pricing in both China and Europe remained effectively flat.
Market sentiment also improved following news that Maersk intends to resume Suez Canal transits in early December, restoring confidence in service continuity.
Caspian weakness offsets inland stability in Central Asia
Inland segments across China, Xinjiang gateways and Central Asia were broadly stable. Road-to-Xi’an rates increased slightly and rail tariffs at Xi’an, Kashgar, Altynkol and Dostyk remained unchanged month-on-month. Throughput at inland hubs grew in the low single digits, reflecting structural westbound demand.
However, late-autumn conditions on the Caspian exerted downward pressure. Container volumes fell by 2–4% month-on-month as weather-related sailing cancellations slowed trans-Caspian flows. Forwarders responded with slight freight reductions of 0.5–1.1%.
Rail–sea routes via Dostyk and Altynkol remain the most competitive
For November, the most cost-competitive links from China to Duisburg again ran via Dostyk or Altynkol combined with Poti and Constanța. These multimodal chains offered price advantages of up to 27% compared with alternative routings.
The strong performance of these segments aligns with the month’s broader pattern: robust western traction, limited inland volatility and weather-driven softness on the southern Caspian interface.
MSRI–MSCI spread narrows as Suez rebounds
With the Suez route experiencing a stronger price recovery, the MSRI–MSCI spread (20-foot) narrowed from 8,354 in October to 8,223 in November. This reflects the comparatively steady rise in Silk Road prices against a more pronounced deep-sea reset.
Outlook: Stable inland flows with western corridors in focus
November’s data depicts a corridor system shaped by predictable seasonal patterns and the re-emergence of deep-sea pricing power. Inland nodes in China and Central Asia remain stable, while Europe-facing rail–sea chains continue to absorb global ocean rate swings.
For shippers planning 2026 contracting cycles, the report’s authors note that the recent ocean spike “may prove temporary”, potentially creating opportunities for more favourable long-term agreements if demand does not strengthen significantly.
Full report is available on https://index.maxmodal.com/