US rail intermodal volume fell 6.5% in November 2025, year-on-year, according to the latest monthly analysis from the American Association of Railroads. That representative body puts that down to a recorded downturn in port activity, following retailer inventory buildup earlier in the year. They say a trend is building, based on increased consumer caution. The year-over-year monthly intermodal decline in November was the third such event in the past six months.
In the same month, there was some better news from other commodities. Characterised as carload by the AAR, bulk cargo such as crushed stone, grain, and coal posted year-over-year gains, offsetting declines in other industrial markets. Overall carload growth was up 1.5% year-over-year. The representative body also notes that the Manufacturing PMI declined further below 50% in November. That pessimistic return for the Purchasing Managers Index suggests continued manufacturing weakness, which negatively impacts rail volumes.
Up and down nature of the industry
Fluctuations in cargo characteristics are normal in the rail industry, says the AAR. Some measures will always be up while others are in decline. For example, US rail intermodal shipments, which are driven primarily by consumer goods, fell 6.5% in November 2025 from November 2024. The American context defines that as shipping containers, but also road trailers moved by rail. Year-to-date intermodal volume was thirteen million containers and trailers, up 1.9% over last year (nearly 247,000 units). An import surge earlier this year, ahead of tariff concerns, may also have depressed demand later in the year.
Total US rail carloads averaged 220,075 per week in November 2025, the third-lowest month so far in 2025. “November volumes are always limited by the Thanksgiving holiday,” observed the AAR. ”Year-to-date total carloads through November were up 1.8%, or almost 193,000 carloads, over the same period in 2024. In 2025 through November, 12 of the 20 carload categories the AAR tracks saw year-over-year gains.”
Freight Rail Index
The AAR takes a holistic view and relates the rail freight industry to wider economic indicators. The body notes that a cooling of the labour market in the US can have mixed implications for railroads. “Slower job growth and rising unemployment often signal weaker consumer demand, which could reduce shipments of retail goods and finished products,” it reports. “Intermodal traffic is highly sensitive to consumer spending, while commodities such as coal and grain tend to follow global and domestic cycles. [The labour] market cooling could slow rail traffic growth, but the extent will depend on how it affects industrial activity and supply chain adjustments.”
The AAR’s unique Freight Rail Index (FRI) combines seasonally adjusted month-to-month rail intermodal shipments with carloads excluding coal and grain. The index is a gauge of underlying freight demand associated with the industrial and consumer economy. The index fell 0.4% in November 2025 from October 2025, its seventh decline in the past eight months. The index is 4.4% below its year-earlier level, largely because of the intermodal slowdown in recent months.