The latest monthly review from the Association of American Railroads (AAR) paints a rosy picture of growth. However, the broad brush of tariffs, painted by US President Trump, threatens to darken the mood. For now, the Association says rail is holding the line, but the economy is sending mixed signals.
World economic currents are shifting frequently. US rail freight is proving resilient in the short term, despite some unfavourable results in the wider domestic economy. Figures from the AAR show manufacturing in the doldrums and consumer sentiment weakening. However, freight volumes are holding steady, and the Association reports that there is even some growth.
Intermodal shows remarkable resilience
The latest monthly review from the Association of American Railroads, covering March 2025, has delivered a few clear signals. None more so than intermodal traffic volumes, which rose again. Carloads ticked up. And despite broader uncertainty, the fundamentals for freight rail remain intact.
US railroads moved 1.10 million containers and trailers, according to the AAR. “That represents an 8.0% year-over-year increase, and the 19th straight month of gains,” says the AAR. “Q1 intermodal volume reached 3.54 million units, up 8.3% from last year and the second-best start to a year on record. With consumer goods spending recovering modestly, intermodal is capitalising on steady demand.”
Coal, Chemicals, and Steel
US railroads originated 906,253 total carloads in March, a 4.5% gain from last year. That is the strongest monthly average since September and the best March since 2022. While coal is in long-term decline, volumes rebounded sharply in March, up 11.1% year-over-year, the biggest jump since early 2022.
Beyond coal, carloads of chemicals hit an all-time monthly high. Aggregates reversed a long downward trend, and steel-related traffic was also up. Primary metal products and iron and steel scrap saw their best volumes in years. All that points to strength in construction and in automotive supply chains. However, both sectors may be under pressure in the coming months, given the radical re-write of economic policy authored by President Trump.
Trade policy is, at best, uncertain. That is leading to weak industrial output, and cautious consumers. Nevertheless, the rail sector continues to prove adaptable. The gains in March suggest that demand is still there.