German Combined Transport (CT) is approaching the danger zone, according to transport association VDV. After years of success, political and economic constraints are condemning CT to a decline.
German Combined Transport has been a success story for a long time. It has grown by around 4% for years, according to VDV, and grew from 80 to 124 million tonnes between 2009 and 2022. The success story might now be over: CT has started to revert course. In 2023, it shrunk back to 113 million tonnes.
VDV broadly identifies two underlying reasons for the development: economic and political setbacks. It says that a declining economy in combination with American tariffs is leading to surplus capacity on the road, making it more attractive than other modes of transportation.
Politically speaking, the situation of CT in Germany could be seen as a self-inflicted wound. “The infrastructural uncertainties on the railway are currently too great and have passed tipping points. Above all, additional costs for diversions from major construction sites and excessively high track access charges are acting as obstacles. They ensure that goods are transported by road instead of rail”, explained VDV Vice President Joachim Berends.
Germany is currently executing a major overhaul of its rail network. Entire sections are being renovated, which will make the rails more reliable in the future, but is causing problems now as trains have to divert along other routes and therefore incur higher costs.
Joachim Berends highlights that in the long term, only a significant modernisation of the rail infrastructure with sufficient capacity will help – exactly what Germany is hoping to achieve with the overhaul.
Track access charges
VDV emphasises the need for a fundamental reform of the track access charge system. “Without competitive track access pricing, rail freight transport is threatened with a decline in market share – that would be a severe setback in economic policy terms”, Berends says. “Furthermore, fair compensation for diverted traffic resulting from corridor renovations, a suspension of cancellation fees starting in 2026, and complete relief for rail freight transport from energy levies and taxes are needed.”
Whereas VDV identifies overcapacity on the road due to an economic decline, some see that European trucking is in fact operating at maximum capacity. Rail could help relieve some of the strain on trucks, but it is not a short-term solution.
Whereas VDV identifies overcapacity on the road due to an economic decline, some see that European trucking is in fact operating at maximum capacity. Rail could help relieve some of the strain on trucks, but it is not a short-term solution.