One week ago, on 12 September, Poland closed the border with Belarus. The prolonged closure is having a substantial impact on China-Europe logistics, with dozens of trains affected on the route that represents a multibillion-dollar business.
Despite Poland saying ahead of time that the border would remain closed “until further notice”, there was a widespread expectation that it would reopen after the conclusion of Russian-Belarusian military exercises on 16 September. However, Poland has repeated that the border would remain closed indefinitely. The timeframe for reopening remains unclear.
That also becomes clear from inquiries with companies involved in the China-Europe freight business. Rumours about a possible reopening have been circulating, but none of them seem to have, or have had, any substance to it. The border could theoretically reopen later today, but it could also take until the end of the month, METRANS explains.
Dozens of trains on the way
And thus, the prolonged border closure has caught many companies that rely on the China-Europe overland transport route off guard. A market source tells RailFreight.com that dozens of trains are currently on their way to the Brest/Małaszewicze border crossing. It is unclear whether those trains can proceed into Poland by the time they arrive.
Miłosz Witkowski, rail freight director at Polish Forwarding Company, earlier warned that trains all along the China-Europe route would have to find places to park and await the reopening of the border. Some companies, such as DB Cargo Eurasia, have indicated that they are looking for alternative routes.
Alternatives are not abundant. One could divert via the Middle Corridor, but that takes more time (and money) than the more conventional route via Belarus. LTG Cargo pointed out on LinkedIn that they could provide alternatives, but have since retracted their statement. Another option would be to go through Saint Petersburg and cover the last leg into Europe by sea, but that might pose sanction challenges.
The logic of security trumps the logic of trade
At least for now, many trains remain stranded in Belarus, with no clear end date in sight. It is a severe obstacle for the 25 billion dollar China-Europe freight business, although the severity will depend on the length of the closure.
The China-Europe overland freight business through Belarus
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total value | €16,2 billion | €30,1 billion | +85% |
| Freight volume (TEU) | €1,5 billion | €2,7 billion (Q1–Q3) | +154% |
| Share of China-Europe trade | 2.1% | 3.7% | +76% |
| Share of China-Europe rail freight | 85% | 90% | +6% |
There are concerns that Poland might squander its privileged position as the gateway into Europe, both from inside and outside the country. For example, the South China Morning Post warns that the closure “could put Poland’s transit hub status at risk.”
For its part, the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been clear about its future intentions during a conversation with the Chinese foreign minister on Monday. “It was made very clear during the talks that in this situation, the logic of trade, which is also beneficial for us, is being replaced by the logic of security. And that was expressed very clearly by Minister Sikorski,” Polish foreign ministry spokesperson Paweł Wroński explained.