Despite receiving the final approval of the executive project last week, the project for the Messina Strait Bridge leaves dozens of questions still dividing the public opinion. A new study highlighted that it might take decades for Italy to start seeing a return on the 13,5 billion euro investment.
The study was published by the Italian National Union of Entreprises (Unimpresa) and focussed on various financial questions on the project to connect Sicily to the rest of Italy. The projections from Unimpresa say that the bridge should generate around 100 million euros in net operating profit every year.
This means that 30 years after the bridge’s opening, profit from transit will be at three billion euros, less than a quarter of the total investment. To reach these figures, logistics and (rail) freight will have to play a leading role. “The development of the bridge over the strait will be linked almost entirely not to the number of inhabitants, but to the amount of goods that will cross the bridge”, Unimpresa vice-president Giuseppe Spadafora added.
Optimistic estimates
And the estimations used by the study are based on quite high road tolls and an optimistic outlook for rail traffic. In this scenario, cars would have to pay 10 euros to cross the bridge, and it would be 15 euros for trucks. Considering that it is a little over three and a half kilometres, it will be a pricey drive (although still cheaper than taking the ferry) that might not stimulate demand for either freight or passengers.
Concerning rail traffic, the study estimates that there will be 36,000 trains running every year. That would be an impressive 98 a day, every day. That is quite the number, especially since the two areas at the ends of the bridge are not at the forefront of rail infrastructure development, both for freight and passengers. Links to and hubs in other Sicilian locations – Palermo and Catania particularly – need to be improved, and the same can be said for the Calabrian side.
“It will be essential to develop an integrated logistics ecosystem that includes modernised and competitive ports, efficient intermodal terminals, high-capacity rail connections and internal distribution platforms connected to the main European routes”, the study stressed. In any case, Italy will need to find other ways to help it recover from this gigantic expense. Some of these ways might include revenues coming from logistics services and concessions as well as national or European funds.
The geological question
Another important aspect of the construction of a bridge across the Messina Strait is the geology of the territory. Strong winds and risks of earthquakes have always been large obstacles to the realisation of the project. Amid all the chaos, Mother Nature reminded us that the last word might be hers with a 2.6 earthquake this morning, Monday, 11 August, right where Scylla and Charybdis stand guard.
The political question
Another problem is the contract signed between the Italian government and the Stretto di Messina company, which will oversee the initiative. In case it is not completed, the companies involved in the construction will still receive one and a half billion euros as penalty fees directly from the state’s pockets. The most pessimistic among us will probably think that this is what will happen, but only time will tell.
Moreover, various groups of people both from Sicily and Calabria have been manifesting against the initiative between yesterday and today. From citizens who will see their land expropriated or will have to live next to a construction site for the next ten years to fishermen voicing their opposition, the voices screaming “No ponte” (“No to the bridge”) are increasing in volume and number.