The first half of 2025 was characterised by what US President Donald Trump called his favourite word: tariffs. How have they impacted rail freight and the supply chain for the European and Eurasian market? RailFreight.com carried out a survey on this, and the results show that uncertainty reigns supreme.
Dozens of industry players took part in the half-year survey, and most of them agreed that the current US approach and the rest of the geopolitical tension are creating a somewhat unstable environment. “These measures introduced a massive level of uncertainty and instability”, one of the respondents underlined.
The main impacts of the new wave of tariffs implemented by the United States translated into higher costs and lower demand, which led to a decline in volumes, many respondents agreed. Concerning Eurasian flows, the tariffs have had an impact on industrial components, electronics, steel products and the automotive industry.
Not much change expected for H2 2025
For many, the outlook remains uncertain also when it comes to the second half of the year. Some respondents said they have a moderately optimistic outlook for the last six months of 2025 and some showed pessimism, but the vast majority does not think things will drastically change.
The main feeling among the respondents could be summed up by what one of them said: “Tariffs need clarification”. And, currently, clarification does not seem to be there, as the EU is still reacting to the latest tariffs announced by Trump and the US-China trade war is far from over.
Congestion, congestion, congestion
Moreover, this unpredictability caused by the turmoil linked to the recent US tariffs is causing congestion in ports and terminals. Most respondents claimed that companies have to deal with unpredictable demand, which is quite difficult to manage. On the other hand, some acknowledged that congestion in Europe is not necessarily strictly related to the tariffs implemented by the US but it is tied to other known factors such as inadequate rail infrastructure and ships too big to handle quickly.
However, a few respondents pointed out that the tariffs did not have a significant impact on the rail freight sector. “Rail remains a small player in wider European cargo flows. The external impacts flowing from tariffs have done nothing to rectify wider and deeper issues which have an impact on rail’s operational and commercial performance”, one of them stated.