It is well-known that Latvia is struggling to build its part of Rail Baltica on time. It does not seem to have the financial resources to construct it in its entirety. A delay is highly likely, but Rail Baltica may now not even be complete by 2035.
Out of Latvia’s 200 kilometres of the planned Rail Baltica route, the country has a design for less than a quarter. Only 43 kilometres have been accounted for, according to parliamentarian and Rail Baltica Committee Head Andris Kulbergs. That would mean that the Latvian part of Rail Baltica will not see the light of day before 2030, write Estonian media.
“Leaders from the transport ministry explained to us a month ago that building to Salaspils within seven to eight years is not possible”, Kulbergs explained. Salaspils is a town right next to capital city Riga, still a long way from the Estonian border.
“Then the next stage – to Estonia. We still do not have documentation, a design. Well, and the financing, in Latvia it’s a minimum of 2,7 billion euros, we don’t have those resources”, the parliamentarian continued. There seems to be very little progress on a completed standard-gauge railway to Latvia’s northern neighbour.
Not even before 2035?
Moreover, Estonian politician and Head of the Anti-Corruption Committee Anastassia Kovalenko-Kõlvart also has a rather pessimistic view of the situation. “Currently, our colleagues from Latvia let us know that there will be no railway before 2035.” That would be a new worst-case scenario for Rail Baltica.
All the while, finishing the railway on time remains crucial. Around 85% of its funding comes from the EU, which wants to see the line completed by 2030. Otherwise, the project could lose out on one billion euros in European financing. That would be a setback for Rail Baltica, especially considering that Latvia’s primary obstacle to finishing its part on time mostly relates to a lack of funding.
Minor role for freight
Expectations are that freight will play only a minor role in a completed Rail Baltica. A cost-benefit analysis estimated the goods will contribute only 5% of the economic gains. However, it could provide a new livelihood for Baltic rail operators that have lost a big part of the business due to sanctions against Russia. The railway would also be highly important from a military perspective.