Throughout 2024, Russia battled with an overcongested Far East railway. So many trains were going to and from China and the Pacific Ocean that the system could not keep up. A return to that situation only seems to be a matter of time.
And that is because no sustainable solution to the problem was found. It sounds like a success: there is no longer an unmanageable capacity crisis on the Baikal-Amur Mainline and the Trans-Siberian line. Yet, that may be an illusion. The sole reason for the disappearance of the problems is that fewer trains are now running on the line.
The crisis of 2024 led customers to move away from the Far East railways. “The railway practically stopped: congestion in Zabaikalsk, a shortage of fitting platforms and equipment on the Russian side. This led not just to some kind of collapse, but practically to a complete stoppage and provoked a sharp drop in demand”, a representative of logistics company Novelco tells Russian media.
The Far East railway crisis
Rail infrastructure in the Russian Far East was heavily congested in 2024. As Russia reoriented its trade flows towards the east following western sanctions, infrastructure in that direction was forced to accommodate significantly more freight.
However, it was not adequately developed to handle such flows of goods. At the same time, a major trade imbalance with China caused many empty containers to flood border infrastructure, further aggravating congestion.
As a result, the Far East network was simply unable to accept all incoming trains.
“The forecasts of our Chinese partners were that this whole collapse would not be resolved before spring 2025. To date, everything has stabilised on the railway. But at the same time, participants in foreign economic activity are simply afraid to go back there.”
What if they do come back?
However, that will not last forever. “When participants of foreign economic activity realise that it is really cheaper, faster, more reliable and transit time is guaranteed, they will start to return there. Demand will increase, and we will return to the same situation that we had in the middle of 2024. I am more than sure that this collapse will happen again”, the business representative explained.
In other words, the retreat of customers from the railways presented a temporary solution to the Far East capacity problems. The core issue has not been resolved, although Russian Railways is investing heavily in upgrading the infrastructure in the region. By 2030, Russia plans to have a throughput capacity of 255 million tonnes annually, up from the planned 180 million tonnes it wants to have in 2025.