Last week, Kazakh Railways (KTZ) appealed to shippers to more actively put grain on the rails. There is a surplus of grain wagons and covered wagons, which translates to unused capacity. However, that does not at all accurately reflect the situation with grain on the Kazakh rails. In fact, the industry in the region has been profiting greatly from a high volume of grain.
The growth trend for grain on the rails applies to both internal and export traffic. For example, between September 2024 and February 2025, grain exports by rail from Kazakhstan reached 5,8 million tonnes, a 53 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2023 and 2024.
More recently, during the first two months of 2025, grain exports increased by 44,5 per cent, reaching 1,9 million tonnes out of a total of over 2,4 million tonnes of grain transported. Grain transport therefore vastly outpaces overall volume growth on the Kazakh network, which amounted to 6,6 per cent.
That growth largely coincides with the size of last year’s harvest, which amounted to 26,5 million tonnes of grain. In 2023, the total harvest reached 17,1 million tonnes.
Export growth
Consequently, countries in the immediate vicinity of Kazakhstan are looking to buy more of its grain. That is good news for the rail business, which gets to transport a lot more of it. Between September 2024 and February 2025, fellow Central Asian countries imported 3,2 million tonnes of Kazakh grain by rail, up by 33 per cent. Azerbaijan, formerly not much of an importer of grain from across the Caspian Sea, grew its imports 90-fold to 0,36 million tonnes.
Similarly, Iran imported 17 times more Kazakh grain by rail (0,66 million tonnes). Afghanistan imported 0,25 million tonnes (up by 36 per cent).
Grain to Afghanistan
It is especially the latter that is interested in Kazakh grain, and Kazakhstan seems to be working to facilitate that in the future as well. For example, a grain terminal near the border with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, which has not been operational for six years, reopened in January. Afghan officials asked for the terminal’s reopening for grain logistics in 2024.
Moreover, Kazakhstan has managed to gain a 40 per cent reduction in grain transit fees through Uzbekistan, which is the most direct rail route to Afghanistan. It seems probable that Kazakh grain will continue to flow to Afghanistan via rail, which could provide an incentive for further development of rail infrastructure to the country.