Fuel shortages, rising operational costs, electrification and digitalisation are some of the most pressing issues for the road transport industry. Yet, road operators worry about one challenge more than anything: driver shortages. It is an obstacle that will grow bigger in the coming years. This will put rail in a good position to take over volumes in synergy with short-distance road operations.
The trucking sector is facing a structural problem. Globally, nearly three million driver positions remain unfilled across 18 markets. This rate has grown since 2021. It is “no longer linked to short-term economic cycles”. Rather, the development is supported by ageing workforces and retirement, barriers to entry onto the market, a lack of adequate infrastructure and changing work expectations, says the World Road Transport Organisation (IRU).
In Europe, around 660,000 of the three million drivers will retire in the coming four years. This represents around 20% of all drivers leaving the market at a time when operators are already turning down new contracts due to the shortage.
“Despite significant industry efforts, the shortage of drivers has deepened as a critical structural issue for the road transport industry”, commented IRU Secretary General Umberto de Pretto. “Driver recruitment is directly affecting transport capacity, business growth and supply chain reliability.”
The solution: modal shift, younger generation, or both?
Part of the solution for the road industry is appealing to the younger generation, but they also bring new expectations to the job. They value time at home and a better work-life balance. “This shift is particularly visible in long-haul transport […]”, says IRU.
That provides opportunities for rail. Regional road haulage only works for cross-border transport if it’s complemented by long distance rail or barge, says the combined rail-road transport association UIRR on LinkedIn. “That makes Combined Transport part of the solution to mitigate the challenge.”
It is, indeed, an often-heard argument in favour of rail. Many rail professionals would like to see a world in which trucks take responsibility for first and last-mile operations, and trains cover the long distances. A single train can replace dozens of trucks and does not require the equivalent amount of drivers. With a fifth of European drivers preparing to retire, the continent may not have much of a choice but to put more freight on the railways or inland waterways.
Europe is not alone in facing this challenge. Driver shortages top the lists of concerns of road operators in China, Mexico, Brazil and Uzbekistan. In Australia, it takes second place, after operational costs. That could also change, however, as 24% of drivers will retire in the coming years there.