Maxmodal’s January 2026 data show consolidation on Eurasian rail corridors, while deep-sea gains tighten the spread between overland and Suez pricing.
The Maxmodal Silk Road Index (MSRI) edged up to 11,317 for 20-foot containers in January 2026, a 0.4% month-on-month increase, signalling consolidation across Eurasian rail corridors. Over the same period, the Maxmodal Suez Canal Index (MSCI) rose more sharply to 3,258, up 4.93%, driven predominantly by higher deep-sea rates. As a result, the MSRI–MSCI spread narrowed to 8,059, from 8,166 in December.
For rail freight stakeholders, the message is twofold: overland pricing remains structurally stable, but ocean volatility is once again influencing corridor competitiveness.
Rail market: stability with corridor nuances
January’s modest MSRI increase (+0.40% for 20’, +0.41% for 40’) reflected rail-driven dynamics rather than a structural repricing. Growth was concentrated in inland China and cross-border segments, particularly the Xi’an–border and Caspian-linked legs. By contrast, Black Sea maritime components softened.
Two eastern macro-regions accounted for the bulk of the increase. Xi’an–China Border contributed 36.8% of index growth, while China Border–Caspian added 30.9%. The Black Sea–Central Europe leg added 20.6%, and the Caspian Sea segment 14.0%. The Black Sea region itself declined by 10.3%, partly reflecting reliability concerns ahead of the announced German train drivers’ strike between 24 and 29 January.
Operational developments underpinned early-month momentum. The first cross-Caspian freight train of the year departed from Xi’an via Horgos–Altynkol, while China–Europe departures intensified across the Greater Bay Area. At the same time, winter-related constraints and infrastructure works in Germany tightened effective capacity into Duisburg toward month-end.
In cost terms, the Middle Corridor retained a clear advantage. Although the spread between the Middle and South corridors widened by 0.51% month on month, as the South Corridor rose 0.42% compared to 0.39% on the Middle, the structural cost base remains lower on the Middle Corridor (10,228 versus 13,494).
Route rankings were unchanged. The most competitive options from Shanghai, Qingdao, and Guangzhou to Duisburg were those via Dostyk or Altynkol, via Poti or Constanța, offering a cost advantage of up to 26–27% compared to Kashgar routings.
Caspian bottleneck persists
While inland rail legs firmed modestly, the Caspian Sea segment continued to face structural constraints. Freight rates on Aktau–Alat and Turkmenbashi–Alat rose by around 0.8% month on month, reflecting winter operating windows and vessel scarcity. However, volumes fell by approximately 3.5%, underlining that operational bottlenecks – rather than demand weakness – remain the key limiting factor.
Handling tariffs across Aktau and Turkmenbashi were unchanged, reinforcing the report’s conclusion that January dynamics were driven by utilisation and reliability, not price inflation.
Further west, Black Sea short-sea rates from Poti declined by around 0.9%, while volumes eased by 1–2%. Competitive pressure from Asia–Mediterranean deep-sea routing capped upside potential in the region.
Ocean rebound narrows the gap
By contrast, January was clearly ocean-led on the Suez corridor. The MSCI rose 4.93% for 20-foot and 5.51% for 40-foot containers, with the deep-sea leg accounting for 91.1% of the total index increase.
The strongest contributions came from the South and East China load ports to the North Range. Shenzhen–Hamburg, Shanghai–Hamburg, and Shanghai–Antwerp and Rotterdam all recorded high single-digit percentage increases, confirming synchronised rate pressure across Asia–North Europe lanes.
Inland European legs played a secondary role. Port-to-Duisburg transfers became more expensive amid congestion, winter disruption and strike risk, but volumes declined as reliability tightened. Duisburg’s own handling charges remained flat, while volumes slipped by around 2% month on month.
The result was a narrowing of the rail–sea spread, not because rail became cheaper, but because ocean rates firmed more decisively.
February outlook: holiday drag expected
Looking ahead, the Lunar New Year is expected to weigh on volumes. Factory shutdowns and reduced export activity are likely to translate into softer spot pricing in February, only partially offset by carrier capacity discipline.
For Eurasian rail freight, January’s data confirm a market in consolidation. Overland corridors remain operationally resilient despite bottlenecks and strike-related disruptions. However, the relative competitiveness of rail versus sea continues to depend heavily on deep-sea pricing cycles – a reminder that modal shift ambitions remain intertwined with maritime market volatility.