The container shipping industry has gathered at Intermodal Europe 2025. It has wrapped up its first session gauging the mood heading into 2026. Market analysts Stefan Verberckmoes, Christian Roeloffs and Simon Heaney shared their perspectives. Volatility will likely be the defining factor of the coming years.
The discussion session was kicked off by Stefan Verberckmoes, analyst at Alphaliner. The company earlier predicted a decade of overcapacity in the maritime shipping sector, which would exert downward pressure on shipping rates (and market Asia – Europe rail comparatively less attractive).
Verberckmoes reiterated that view, saying that pessimism is generally justified. Overcapacity will dominate the maritime industry, with major lines having huge orderbooks. They started putting capacity on order following the covid pandemic and the Red Sea crisis. Most deliveries are scheduled for 2027 and 2028. Subsequently, the shipping companies will be forced to compete for freight, which will suppress prices.
Simon Heaney, Senior Manager at Drewry, sees a different reason for the ordering frenzy. He points to geopolitics, where the new administration in the White House has completely done away with the former status quo. Political developments such as the Red Sea crisis and trade wars, but also climate change, have made volatility a structural factor in Heaney’s view.
Redundancy is the new philosophy
Predictability has therefore shrunk significantly, and predictive models now have a much wider margin of error. The new philosophy at shipping companies is therefore redundancy, says Heaney. The more capacity, the more certainty they have.
In other words, the shipping companies are in the dark about near-term developments in the international trade environment. How international trade will develop in the coming years seems to be anyone’s guess. It follows that the volume of freight coming into Europe through ports, or overland via rail, is also unpredictable.
Speaking on behalf of market analyst Container xChange, Christian Roeloffs highlighted a possible end to the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a rail-related factor of uncertainty. If a peace agreement would come about, something that Container xChange considers to be in the medium range in terms of likelihood in the coming year, then China-Europe rail would become a “viable option” again.
That would lead to fewer disruptions between China and Europe and boost demand with a “strong willingness to pay” among customers, according to Roeloffs.
Overcapacity not as bad as it may seem
As for the maritime industry: All three speakers agreed that a return to lower spot freight rates and low profit margins is highly likely. The situation with overcapacity may not be as dramatic as some expect, considering that shipping lines have been reluctant to retire capacity in recent years.
If they would now get rid of all of the 20 year old ships, then that would take out 3,2 million TEU in capacity immediately. Besides, the demand for trade is still strong, up by 4,4% between January and August 2025. Demand in Latin America, Africa and India is also growing, and port congestion makes that 18% of all capacity is waiting at any given time. There will be downward pressure, but there are factors pulling rates up too.
Read their predictions for 2025 here: