Shipping lines are placing orders like never before. Transportation capacity at sea will almost certainly grow to new heights. That poses major risks for the maritime shipping sector, but it also does not bode well for rail freight.
It is not quite the first appearance of reports about upcoming overcapacity at sea. Yet, the Singapore-based analyst Linerlytica has issued perhaps the most stark warning thus far. Shipping lines have now placed orders that equal 31.7% of the existing fleet capacity: a historic high.
The last time that a similar situation occurred was between 2004 and 2009, and the maritime sector would go on to struggle for a decade with overcapacity issues. The prospect for the sector now is much the same: exceptionally high capacity at sea could lead shipping lines to lower their rates significantly to attract more goods. As a result of the expected low rates, which could immediately follow these huge orders, the financial performance of the shipping lines might disappoint for the foreseeable future.
Impact on rail freight
The expected development is also not a good sign for rail freight. That is especially true on the Asia-Europe route, where rail is in direct competition with maritime shipping. The amount of containers transported by rail in the first seven months of 2025 shrunk by 22% compared to the same period in 2024. Much of that decline, if not all, happened due to lower maritime rates in 2025.
At the same time, however, European ports are already having a difficult time keeping up with incoming container traffic. Major ports such as Hamburg, Rotterdam and Antwerp all face their own problems, leading to significant delays. There is only so much traffic that ports can handle. The impact on Asia-Europe rail traffic therefore also depends on throughput capacity of these major ports, and how much traffic alternative ports can take over.
On the flipside: both Rotterdam and Antwerp pointed to rail as part of the solution for congestion in the ports. Congestion arises mostly on the land side of operations, explained the Port of Rotterdam, meaning that rail can help boost the outflow capacity for containers.
Around the Cape of Good Hope
Shipping lines started placing orders to boost their capacity following the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Sailing around Africa is a much longer route, demanding more capacity. With the current maritime capacity order rates, all else being equal, prices are likely to drop significantly. Yet, if the Red Sea becomes accessible once again, the overcapacity could become an even bigger issue.
Even if container shipping lines scrap all their ships that have been in service for twenty years or longer, the total container capacity will have grown to 35,8 million TEU by the end of the decade, according to shipping association BIMCO. In autumn 2024, the global fleet passed the 30 million TEU milestone. According to analyst Alphaliner, the total now stands at 32,7 million TEU. There is 10,4 million TEU of capacity currently on order.