The Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Croatia and Portugal. These are the only European countries where the modal share of rail freight has increased between 2005 and 2023, according to data from Eurostat. For the whole Union, it went from 18.5% to 16.9%, showing how the EU’s modal shift policies are failing.
The most notable increase, at least in percentage points, was experienced in Portugal, where the modal share rail freight went from 9.2% in 2005 to 14.1% in 2023. Germany, Italy and Croatia recorded similar growth, from 18% to 20.6%, from 10% to 12% and from 20% to 22.7% respectively. When it comes to Switzerland and the Netherlands, the increase was marginal. The former went from 33.6% to 34.3% and the latter went from 6% to 6.4%.
The countries where rail freight decreased the most are the three Baltic states, especially Estonia, which went from 80% to 20.4%. Latvia and Lithuania also recorded disastrous numbers, from 84.1% to 44% in the first and from 73.6% to 39.1% the second. In Poland, Slovakia and Czechia, the modal share of rail freight fell by about one-third in each country, while it halved in Luxembourg. Rail freight lost its popularity also in every other European country equipped with a railway network.
The rise of road freight
The data provided by Eurostat highlighted that rail freight is not the only modality losing volumes. Inland waterways, for example, have seen fewer cargo in all European countries where this type of transport exists. The most notable drops were in Bulgaria, from 30% to 17.9%, and Luxembourg, from 13.1% to 6.9%. The volumes left behind by rail freight and inland waterways were vastly picked up by the road sector, which can often provide cheaper, faster and more flexible solutions.
The Eurostat data showed the situation between 2005 and 2023, but the scenario is likely to remain unchanged, if not worsen, for another decade. For rail, the infrastructure is still outdated in many areas of Europe. Some countries are undertaking massive railway upgrades, but these projects are also causing issues due to temporary capacity restrictions. For inland waterways, the increasing unpredictability of water levels will keep being a problem.
However, this trend goes against the sustainability policies for transport proposed by the European Union. The sustainable development goal for industry, innovation and infrastructure (SDG9) explicitly calls for the opposite trend. Transport modalities considered more sustainable, rail and inland waterways, should be gaining volumes in favour of the road to lower the impact of the supply chain in the Old Continent. In reality, though, more and more trucks are running on EU roads with all the pollution and risks that come with it.