Chinese container rates are continuing their downward trend. Companies cannot seem to get rid of their stock in depots, suppressing prices. Since November 2024, they have fallen by 11 per cent. That could make China – Europe rail freight cheaper, but it does not necessarily improve its competitiveness.
Logistics businesses in China are rushing to get rid of their container stock. Recently, there has been a “concerning build-up” at depots, which makes it difficult to move inventory, according to market monitoring platform Container xChange.
“Tariff uncertainties and the slowdown in cargo transportation have intensified inventory build-ups in China, making it difficult for businesses to clear their stocks from depots”, Christian Roeloffs, CEO of the platform, explains. “Resultantly, we observe a continued decline in container prices and average leasing rates out of China in the month of March.”
Prices have declined by 11 per cent, from 2,859 US dollars in November 2024 to 2,539 US dollars as of March 18, 2025.
China – Europe traffic
Chinese market parties confirm that export volumes to the US are on the decline, and a similar trend is seemingly ongoing with Europe. That pushes container rates down.
The leasing cost average of a container for China – Europe rail freight was 1,400 dollars in January, and it dropped to 1,100 dollars in March. Cheaper rail freight could attract more businesses to transport their goods on trains. However, when it comes to maritime shipping, there is a similar trend going on, meaning that rail freight’s competitiveness does not necessarily improve.
As of late January, moving a 40-foot container between Shanghai and Rotterdam cost an average of 3,274 US dollars. By March 20, that had dropped to 2,463 dollars.
How the market situation will develop in the near future is difficult to say. Much depends on the situation in the Red Sea. If the maritime corridor through the Suez Canal is clear for passage, that could push maritime shipping rates down even further. That could then have negative consequences for China – Europe rail traffic.