New Guinea, the world’s second-largest island, harbors an extraordinary variety of plant life across more than a dozen distinct ecoregions, including seasonally dry savannas, tropical rainforests, and lowland swamp forests. But in September and October 2026, as drought gripped New Guinea (sometimes called Papua) amid a strong El Niño, fires scorched the island and smoke shrouded large swaths of it for weeks.
The VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) on the NOAA-20 satellite captured this image of thick smoke streaming from the southern part of the island on October 11, 2026. In recent weeks, soaring levels of air pollution delayed and canceled flights, closed schools, and prompted officials in some areas to urge children and older people to wear masks.
“Sometimes smoke that has drifted into the convection of nearby thunderstorms will get washed out or lofted up into the upper troposphere, but a lot of smoke stays near the surface and causes air quality problems,” said Robert Field, an associate research scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University. “It’s a horrible situation.”
According to the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED), a fire emissions monitoring system, fires in Papua New Guinea, on the eastern half of the island, had released nearly 32 megatons of carbon by October 19, more than any other year on record at that point in the year. “Emissions are already much higher than the 2015 total for the year, and it’s very likely that this will become the highest year on record for Papua New Guinea, even surpassing 1997,” said Guido van der Werf, a fire scientist at Wageningen University & Research.
On the Indonesian side, sometimes called West New Guinea or Indonesian Papua, carbon emissions exceeded 35 megatons, the third highest after 2015 and 1997, other El Niño years with severe fires. Van der Werf led the development of GFED, a satellite-driven modeling framework that uses a mix of remote sensing, vegetation characteristics, and other information to estimate the extent of vegetation fires and the emissions over nearly three decades.
Unusually dry weather—a byproduct of El Niño shifting rainfall patterns—has primed ecosystems across the island to burn. The southernmost part of Papua New Guinea, dominated by relatively fire-prone savannas and grasslands of the Trans-Fly region, went more than 90 consecutive days without rain, according to Papua New Guinea’s National Weather Service. Since August, parts of the region have seen precipitation of roughly 5 to 10 percent of normal, according to the weather service’s data. Local news outlets report that drought is causing crop failures, water shortages, and school disruptions.
In this normally wet part of the world, people ignite the vast majority of fires, researchers say. Crop fires, pasture maintenance, deforestation and land clearing, and hunting are all common reasons people burn in New Guinea. In dry conditions, managed fires sometimes spread and burn uncontrolled as wildfires, particularly in the drier, southernmost parts of the island.
“We’re seeing an exceptionally high level of fire activity in Papua New Guinea and Eastern Indonesia, particularly Indonesian Papua and Kalimantan, this year compared with Sumatra and other parts of Western Indonesia,” said Yang Chen, an associate researcher at the University of California, Irvine. “Papua has emerged as Indonesia’s new deforestation frontier.”
Over the past two decades, land in Indonesian Papua has been cleared for industrial oil palm and pulpwood plantations, shifting small-scale cultivation, urban expansion, and mining. According to Global Forest Watch, the region lost 27,000 hectares of primary forest in 2025, nearly double the 2024 total and the most since 2017.
Sumatra’s fires are relatively low compared to other drought years partly because many areas are already developed. “Areas with large oil palm, sugarcane, or pulpwood plantations also often have their own private fire brigades to protect their assets,” said Field. “It’s in unmanaged areas or primary forest edges where we’re generally seeing the most fire.”
Researchers expect the fires to continue until the heavy rains of the wet season arrive in the southern part of New Guinea, typically in early November.
NASA Earth Observatory image and charts by Michala Garrison, using data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE, GIBS/Worldview, the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), and the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). Story by Adam Voiland.
References & Resources
- BMKG (2026, October 13) Analisis Dinamika Atmosfer Dasarian I Oktober 2026. Accessed October 21, 2026.
- Chen, Y., et al. (2026, October 15) Tracking recent extremes and interannual variability of global fire emissions using a near-real-time extension to the Global Fire Emissions Database. Earth Systems Data Science, 18(10), 7535–7555.
- Field, R., et al. (2009) Human amplification of drought-induced biomass burning in Indonesia since 1960. Nature Geoscience, 2, 185-188.
- FM100 (2026, October 16) Fire Service Confirms 236 Bushfires Amid El Nino Dry Spell. Accessed October 21, 2026.
- Global Fire Emissions Database (2026) Current Fire Situation. Accessed October 21, 2026.
- Mongabay (2026, January 14) After years of progress, Indonesia risks ‘tragedy’ of a deforestation spike. Accessed October 21, 2026.
- NASA (2026) Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS). Accessed October 21, 2026.
- NASA Earth Observatory (2021, March 9) Deforestation in Papua. Accessed October 21, 2026.
- Nusantara Atlas (2026, July 20) Monthly Burn Scars and Fire Season Progress Now Live on Nusantara Atlas. Accessed October 21, 2026.
- PNGMET (2026) Papua New Guinea Drought Dashboard. Accessed October 21, 2026.
- Putra Bhayangkara (2026, October 14) Kabut Asap Pekat Masih Menyelimuti Asmat Dan Sejumlah Wilayah Di Papua Selatan. Accessed October 21, 2026.
- RNZ (2026, October 16) Haze over Papua from forest fires causes mass disruptions, health issues.Accessed October 21, 2026.
- Universitas Gadjah Mada (2026, October 14) Peatland Conditions and Limited Firefighting Access Hamper Fire Suppression. Accessed October 21, 2026.
- Yulianti, N. & Hayasaka, H. (2023) Recent Active Fires in Indonesia’s Southern Papua Province Caused by El Niño Conditions. Remote Sensing, 15(11), 2709.
You may also be interested in:
Stay up-to-date with the latest content from NASA as we explore the universe and discover more about our home planet.
During El Niño, a cascade of fires across the tropics begins in equatorial Asia and continues in the central and…
With Indonesia gripped by drought, fires are smoldering on the surface and underground.
Wildland fires in early August 2026 pushed air quality to unhealthy levels, destroyed hundreds of structures, and triggered mandatory evacuations…
