Rail Baltica is arguably the biggest rail project in Europe as it aims to fundamentally change how the Baltic countries will be connected to the EU. By implementing a standard-gauge network, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will move away from the broad-gauge one which historically tied them to Russia. RailFreight.com asked five questions to Rail Baltica’s CTO Emilien Dang on the role of the project in the logistics of tomorrow.
In the mainstream, Rail Baltica is often seen as a game-changer for passenger connections between the Baltics and the rest of Europe. However, Dang analysed the impact of the initiative on the short and long term, which industries can take advantage and its role for military mobility.
What would change in terms of logistics for the Baltic States?
Rail Baltica would allow uninterrupted freight operations into Poland and further into Central and Western Europe improving reliability, reducing handling costs and shortening transit times for international cargo. Logistically, this creates the conditions for a stronger shift toward intermodal transport. New or upgraded terminals along the corridor would enable smoother transfers between rail, road and maritime transport.
Another important change is the diversification of trade routes. The Baltic freight system has historically depended heavily on transit flows linked to Russia and Belarus. Rail Baltica supports a strategic pivot toward European markets, strengthening north–south supply chains connecting Finland, the Baltic States and Poland with Germany and beyond. This enhances economic resilience by reducing geopolitical vulnerability and broadening market access. Over time, the improved connectivity will also influence business decisions. Companies will reorganize distribution networks, establish regional logistics hubs along the corridor, and integrate more deeply into EU value chains.
How important would the line be for rail freight? Can you explain which industries might benefit the most and which connections?
Rail Baltica will create a modern railway line using the European standard gauge that connects the Baltic States with Poland and the rest of Europe. This will remove the current rail gauge difference that makes freight transport difficult. As a result, Baltic railways will be able to connect directly with European freight corridors and rely less on the traditional east–west transit routes. According to the December 2024 Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA), Rail Baltica is expected to significantly change rail freight in the Baltic States, even if freight volumes increase gradually over time.
By 2046, the first phase of Rail Baltica is expected to carry about 9,2 million tons of cargo per year. Most of this will be non-unitised (bulk) cargo, about 7,3 million tons, such as raw materials and large shipments. Unitised cargo, such as containers and semi-trailers, will account for about 1,9 million tons annually. Even though the volume is smaller, unitised cargo is expected to generate more revenue because it usually travels longer distances and consists of smaller but higher-value shipments. Although bulk goods make up most of the cargo volume in Baltic trade, unitised cargo remains very important for Rail Baltica. Businesses prefer unitised cargo because it is easier to handle, moves efficiently through ports, and supports the speed and flexibility needed in international trade.
The industries that will benefit the most are those involved in international trade and intermodal logistics. Container and semi-trailer transport will particularly benefit because they require reliable connections, compatible infrastructure, and competitive travel times across long distances. According to the CBA, sectors such as machinery manufacturing, automotive components, timber processing, and construction materials will gain better access to Central and Western European markets.
In practical logistics terms, the line would encourage a gradual shift from road to rail for long-haul freight, reduce bottlenecks at gauge-change points, and support the development of intermodal terminals along the corridor. Over time, this will lead companies to reorganize supply chains, establish new distribution centres, and deepen integration into European value chains. The CBA therefore presents Rail Baltica as strategically significant for freight not simply because of projected volumes, but because it reorients the Baltic States from a peripheral rail system tied to the eastern 1520 mm network toward full participation in the EU’s standard-gauge freight system.
Do you think that support for Rail Baltica might change if the priority currently given to military mobility should no longer be there?
The short answer is that military mobility adds geopolitical weight and accelerates decision-making. Without it, the project might face more scrutiny, slower funding negotiations or stronger pressure to limit scope, but the underlying economic and integration arguments would continue to provide a substantial basis for continued support.
More broadly speaking, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, military mobility has become a central argument for financing the Rail Baltica, as it would enable rapid movement of NATO forces and equipment across the alliance border countries – Baltics – and into Central Europe.
However, it’s necessary to point out that Rail Baltica’s core rationale does not depend solely on military mobility. Its economic objectives integrating the Baltic States into the European standard-gauge rail network, reducing logistical fragmentation, supporting intermodal freight, and enhancing regional connectivity remain structurally important. Even without a security imperative, the project would still represent a long-term strategic investment in market integration, supply-chain resilience and decarbonisation.
What are the latest estimations for costs and completion of the project?
For the first operational phase, which aims to create an initial standard-gauge rail connection across the Baltic States and link it to Poland, the estimated cost is around 15,3 euros billion and is planned to be completed by 2030. This phase includes foundational infrastructure and basic operational capability for the corridor. Rail Baltica is a priority TEN-T project connecting Poland, the Baltic States, and Finland indirectly, with links to Ukraine. Using the European standard gauge, it creates a new North–South rail corridor in the Baltic region, fully integrating it into the EU network. The project boosts regional travel, freight efficiency, sustainable transport, and supports EU-NATO military mobility.
Talking about the progress, we can say that Rail Baltica has reached an advanced level of technical and organisational readiness. Detailed designs have been completed for major sections, procurement processes are ongoing, and construction packages are being prepared. This ensures that works can be launched promptly as financing becomes available (construction readiness). In Estonia, contracts cover the full 213 km main line of the first phase of implementation, with more than 100 km already under active construction. In Latvia, works cover the entire main line, including the priority southern section and the development of Riga Central Station and Riga Airport. In Lithuania, 114 km of the main line is under construction, with track laying underway and significant progress being made on the Neris River bridge. At the system level, a major milestone was reached in September 2025 with the signing of the electrification design-and-build contract, which will create a unified system across the three countries.
What are your thoughts on the current Rail Baltica plan, which is much less ambitious than the initial one?
I don’t see it that way. From a strategic perspective, this shift toward a phased, more pragmatic plan makes sense because it allows the project to move forward. The 2030 target for the first phase remains our main operational reference point. However, it is based on specific assumptions: continuous EU and national financing, sufficient construction capacity, and stable implementation conditions. These assumptions leave limited margin for disruption. If they change, the schedule will also need to change. This reality is openly discussed with our partners and decision-makers.
Discussions at regional and European levels have confirmed that long-term funding predictability, particularly under the Connecting Europe Facility and the next Multiannual Financial Framework, will be decisive for meeting the agreed milestones. Without timely and sufficient financing, progress will inevitably slow, regardless of technical readiness.
The different implementation environments across the three Baltic states also need to be highlighted. Legal frameworks, contracting models, and financing arrangements vary, directly affecting risk profiles and delivery sequences. Managing these differences while maintaining overall system coherence remains one of our main practical challenges.