The Australasian Railway Association (ARA) released new research in October confirming the rail construction and maintenance investment pipeline across Australia for the next 10 years.
The ARA National Rail Procurement Pipeline Annual Report, which details market conditions and forecast activity for each state and territory, provided new insights to help the rail industry plan for the future.
The report was developed by Oxford Economics Australia and confirmed the industry is moving into a new stage of the investment cycle after a period of sustained growth.
Rail construction and maintenance activity had tripled in the past decade to support rising populations and economic growth.
In fact, $132 billion in construction and maintenance activity has been recorded since 2014–15, reflecting significant investment in rail network expansion over the past 10 years.
Activity to remain high, as construction peaks
Rail construction activity currently remains strong and is expected to peak at $17.3 billion in 2025-26. Activity is expected to stay above current levels until 2027–28, before falling to $11.3 billion in 2031–32. High levels of activity will remain on the east coast, with publicly funded rail construction across New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland to account for 94 per cent of project work over the next five years.
Queensland is expected to record the strongest growth profile as a result of its substantial program of both passenger and freight investment, including the delivery of the Cross River Rail project.
Beyond construction, rail maintenance is forecast to grow.
Network expansion, ageing infrastructure and climate events will drive increased maintenance activity, ensuring a strong pipeline of work beyond the development of new projects.
This focus on maintenance and upgrades will not only support the industry’s productivity and efficiency but will help ensure a resilient national rail network as the country’s transport needs evolve.
The need for a certain investment pipeline
The report confirms that while the nature of rail investment is going through a period of transition, high demand for rail construction and maintenance will remain.
Australia will require a strong skills base and continued investment in supply chain capability to support this demand.
That is why the ARA is advocating for a certain, long-term and nationally coordinated investment pipeline.
A clear pipeline allows governments and industry to better plan and helps rail organisations retain their workforce and invest to meet future needs.
The recently released ARA Strategic Plan 2025–2030 identified the need for a sustainable investment pipeline as a key policy priority, and we will continue to advocate on this issue in the year ahead.
In addition to visibility for the industry, it is important that governments also work to smooth out the traditional peaks and troughs that have been a feature of infrastructure investment cycles in the past to support more efficient project delivery over time.
Skills challenges remain
While construction activity is reaching its peak, skills shortages for key roles persist.
Australia has developed an outstanding skilled workforce as new projects have been delivered across the country in recent years.
A clear and certain investment pipeline will help support the retention of this skills base and ensure we can maintain the talent we need to drive further productivity and efficiency outcomes across the rail supply chain.
The pipeline report helps define the need for ongoing skills attraction and retention to support the industry’s growth and development.
The ARA is continuing to support initiatives to promote rail as an industry of choice for job seekers and support improved pathways into the industry.
This will remain a critical issue for Australian rail.
Leveraging the full benefits of rail investment
While the pipeline report confirms the significant investment in the transport sector in the past decade, there is much more to the story when it comes to delivering rail projects.
The recent wave of new projects has helped to address years of historic underinvestment in rail and is truly transforming our cities. We have already seen the wider benefits rail can deliver in New South Wales, with the delivery of Sydney Metro changing how people move about the city and activating new housing and urban renewal opportunities.
Victoria can expect to see similar benefits later this year when the Melbourne Metro Tunnel operations get underway, while rail projects in Brisbane and Perth are also creating new growth opportunities for their communities.
These projects highlight the significant benefits rail can deliver beyond their initial construction and confirms that policies that lead with transport can achieve substantial and positive outcomes for their communities.
In the passenger rail sector, major projects across the country have helped to meet growing demand and are making public transport the mode of choice for more people.
This not only helps relieve congestion and take cars off the road but sparks new housing and urban renewal opportunities to drive growth and meet the needs of rising populations.
In the freight sector, rail investment can support safer and low emissions freight transport, improving community safety and environmental outcomes.
The ARA’s soon-to-be-released Value of Rail 2025 report confirms that greater use of rail freight can drive significant community benefits and can support a more efficient national freight and logistics supply chain.
The ARA continues to advocate for further investment in rail freight upgrades, together with broader national policy reform, to support greater use of rail in the sector.
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Far more development of Rail Freight would be a game changer for the state of Victoria. Our roads have become very unsafe with road trains running between country towns and the Ports of Melbourne and Geelong. Rail lines sit idle under this government.