A high-speed rail line between Newcastle and Sydney would be delivered in three stages under ambitious plans detailed in a business case for the mega project, which envisages the first services starting by 2037.
Under the preferred option, operations between Newcastle and the Central Coast would start within the next 12 years, followed by those to the Sydney CBD by 2039, and Parramatta and Western Sydney Airport by 2042.
The plans by a federal rail authority, which proposes that construction begin in 2027, include stations at Broadmeadow in Newcastle, Lake Macquarie, the Central Coast, the Sydney CBD, Parramatta and Western Sydney Airport.
Of the 191 kilometres planned, 115 kilometres would be in tunnels, 41 kilometres on surface tracks and 38 kilometres over bridges and viaducts.
After evaluating the business case for a dedicated high-speed link, Infrastructure Australia is supporting the Newcastle-Sydney section of the broader project for a line along the east coast to progress to a development phase focused on improving certainty about costs and benefits.
It has also recommended that, in parallel, further work be carried out on the entire project, building on the analysis in the business case.
The evaluation has excluded the estimated cost of building the line due to concerns that would jeopardise a bidding process.
Cost estimates in confidential modelling by the NSW government three years ago estimated a new line from Sydney to the Central Coast would cost up to $32 billion.
The High Speed Rail Authority, which completed the business case late last year, is seeking federal government funding for a two-year development phase for the first two legs: Newcastle to Central Coast and then onto Central.
That development phase would refine the design and a cost estimate for the project, as well as secure planning approvals and preserve a corridor for the line.
Infrastructure Australia said a higher level of cost certainty was needed to inform decisions about investing in the project.
“Given the large amount of tunnelling and the new rail systems, we expect costs to vary considerably as design maturity improves,” it said.
The nation’s peak adviser on infrastructure said it was not possible yet to make a confident assessment of the project’s cost-benefit ratio until there was more certainty about its cost.
Analysis by the rail authority shows it is only under low-cost or high-benefit scenarios, which include land use uplift and wider economic boosts, that the benefits of the proposed Newcastle-Sydney line would outweigh the bill.
SMH
