{"id":87951,"date":"2024-07-16T20:47:03","date_gmt":"2024-07-16T10:47:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/?p=54458"},"modified":"2024-07-16T20:47:03","modified_gmt":"2024-07-16T10:47:03","slug":"cku-line-cannot-compete-with-kazakh-infrastructure-for-china-europe-freight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vibewire.com.au\/?p=87951","title":{"rendered":"\u2018CKU line cannot compete with Kazakh infrastructure for China \u2013 Europe freight\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>After a long time of political tug-of-war, China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan seem to have agreed on an outline for the China &#8211; Kyrgyzstan &#8211; Uzbekistan (CKU) line. It looks like the three countries will really build the line, which Kyrgyzstan has lauded as a major step in its logistical development. However, the future of the expensive CKU line may not be as rosy as it could seem.<\/strong><br \/>\n<span id=\"more-54458\"><\/span>Marat Shibutov, a Kazakh political scientist and member of presidential advisory body \u201cKurultai\u201d, argues that the CKU line is not all rainbows and sunshine. Shibutov tells RailFreight.com that the line will compete with Kazakh rail infrastructure for the same flow of goods between China and Europe, once it is up and running. However, Kazakhstan\u2019s rail infrastructure has too many advantages, which makes it unlikely that the CKU line can ever pose a challenge, he says.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"readmore\">\n<div class=\"readmore-item\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/railfreight\/2024\/06\/11\/china-uzbekistan-and-kyrgyzstan-come-to-cku-line-agreement\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/shutterstock_2339277883-128x128.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"readmore-thumbnail\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"readmore-info\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/railfreight\/2024\/06\/11\/china-uzbekistan-and-kyrgyzstan-come-to-cku-line-agreement\/\" class=\"readmore-title\">China, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan come to CKU line agreement<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p>Consequently, Kazakhstan\u2019s businesses and government are not at all worried about the CKU line, according to Shibutov. \u201cNo, they are not scared. Approximately 80 per cent of the route goes through mountains, and you need a huge amount of bridges and tunnels there. Besides, it is a single-track line and goes into mountains, which means a small amount of wagons per train. The volume of freight that you can transport there is not that large\u201d, Shibutov explains. Reportedly, the volume of freight to be carried along the route by 2050 is 13,5 million tonnes.<\/p>\n<h2>Sky-high construction costs<\/h2>\n<p>The line through Kyrgyzstan will be a single-track railway of approximately 500 kilometres in length through mountainous terrain. It needs 120 kilometres of tunnels and 26 kilometres of bridges, says Shibutov. At the railway\u2019s halfway point, in Makmal, trains will switch from China\u2019s standard gauge to the 1520 mm broad gauge. The construction costs of the line grow immensely due to these factors.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"fluid wp-image-54464 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2024-07-16-om-11.49.47-480x348.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"480\" height=\"348\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Scherm\u00adafbeelding-2024-07-16-om-11.49.47-480x348.jpeg 480w, https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Scherm\u00adafbeelding-2024-07-16-om-11.49.47-768x557.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Scherm\u00adafbeelding-2024-07-16-om-11.49.47.jpeg 808w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 100vw, 480px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The CKU line route through southern Kyrgyzstan. Image: \u00a9 Google Maps.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Meanwhile, Kazakhstan has an already developed railway network across primarily flat land. \u201cOur trains go across flatlands, here we don\u2019t have such an amount of bridges and no tunnels at all, slopes neither\u201d, Shibutov says. \u201cWe can keep our fees lower, while the southern (Kyrgyz) route needs to pay for its construction costs.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>Ten to twelve billion dollars for CKU line<\/h2>\n<p>Those construction costs are a point of contention as well, and presented a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/business\/2024\/01\/23\/kyrgyzstan-struggles-to-find-money-for-cku-line\/\"  rel=\"noopener\">major obstacle<\/a> to an agreement on the line. Ultimately, China agreed to finance approximately half of the route, while Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan will each take on about a quarter of the costs. With China\u2019s part amounting to 2,3 billion dollars, the total projected cost of the line is 4,7 billion dollars.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"readmore\">\n<div class=\"readmore-item\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/corridors\/2024\/06\/20\/china-to-pour-at-least-2-3-billion-for-line-to-kyrgyzstan-uzbekistan\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/shutterstock_1133745527-128x128.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"readmore-thumbnail\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"readmore-info\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/corridors\/2024\/06\/20\/china-to-pour-at-least-2-3-billion-for-line-to-kyrgyzstan-uzbekistan\/\" class=\"readmore-title\">China to pour at least $2.3 billion for line to Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p>However, Shibutov disputes this number: \u201cBut really, considering construction in the mountains, the cost of the line will be in the range of 10 to 12 billion dollars\u201d, he says. Such high costs will inevitably be reflected in the usage fees, which harm the line\u2019s competitiveness. According to the Kyrgyz president, transit fees will generate 200 million dollars annually for the country. It will take a long time for the line to pay itself off.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"fluid wp-image-54469 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Kyrgyz-mountians-480x237.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"480\" height=\"237\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Kyrgyz-mountians-480x237.jpg 480w, https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Kyrgyz-mountians-768x379.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Kyrgyz-mountians.jpg 1000w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 480px) 100vw, 480px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Kyrgyz mountains do not lend themselves well to rail infrastructure. Image: Shutterstock. \u00a9 Tati Menshikova.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Reducing dependence on Kazakhstan?<\/h2>\n<p>What, then, exactly is the reason behind the CKU line? Kyrgyz political scientist Nargiza Muratalieva, in an interview with platform LogiStan, claimed that the line could help reduce Kyrgyzstan&#8217;s dependence on Kazakhstan in logistical questions. The landlocked country could get better and diversified access to the sea, and the border with Kazakhstan is congested, she says.<\/p>\n<p>Marat Shibutov disagrees. According to him, Kyrgyzstan\u2019s dependence on Kazakhstan remains either way. \u201cThe dependence of Kyrgyzstan on Kazakhstan consists of exports to Russia and further west through our territory. Going through Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and further is a lot less convenient for Kyrgyz transporters due to the many border crossings and customs offices.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>What remains is the benefit for local transportation and perhaps attracting additional goods from China to go towards Europe. Could the CKU line grow those volumes? \u201cNot by a lot\u201d, says Shibutov, \u201cand then only after some years after the line\u2019s completion. I do not think that the line will be very popular on long distances. Rather, it will service Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan exclusively. Even if there is going to be more freight, it will likely not be considered and the volumes will statistically not be large.\u201d<\/p>\n<aside class=\"readmore\">\n<div class=\"readmore-item\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/railfreight\/2024\/05\/08\/construction-on-cku-line-to-start-in-october-2024\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2024-05-08-om-11.11.59-128x128.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"readmore-thumbnail\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"readmore-info\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/railfreight\/2024\/05\/08\/construction-on-cku-line-to-start-in-october-2024\/\" class=\"readmore-title\">Construction on CKU line to start in October 2024<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After a long time of political tug-of-war, China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan seem to have agreed on an outline for the China \u2013 Kyrgyzstan \u2013 Uzbekistan\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":1,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10863,6852,1754,118,8296,7265,11313,343,950,1756,116,117,951],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-87951","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asia-europe","category-belt-and-road-initiative","category-bri","category-china","category-china-europe","category-cku-line","category-in-depth","category-infrastructure","category-kazakhstan","category-kyrgyzstan","category-new-silk-road","category-specials","category-uzbekistan"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vibewire.com.au\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87951","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vibewire.com.au\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vibewire.com.au\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vibewire.com.au\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vibewire.com.au\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=87951"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.vibewire.com.au\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87951\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":88648,"href":"https:\/\/www.vibewire.com.au\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87951\/revisions\/88648"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vibewire.com.au\/index.php?rest_route=\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vibewire.com.au\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=87951"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vibewire.com.au\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=87951"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vibewire.com.au\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=87951"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}