{"id":290478,"date":"2025-09-24T19:01:34","date_gmt":"2025-09-24T09:01:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/?p=66147"},"modified":"2025-09-24T19:01:34","modified_gmt":"2025-09-24T09:01:34","slug":"data-of-the-week-how-important-is-malaszewicze-for-china-europe-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vibewire.com.au\/?p=290478","title":{"rendered":"Data of the week: How important is Ma\u0142aszewicze for China-Europe trade?"},"content":{"rendered":"

At the time of writing, the Ma\u0142aszewicze rail crossing on the Poland-Belarus border remains closed but is set to reopen on 25 September. The closure has made headlines for its impact on the China-Europe railway corridor, which largely came to a standstill. Experts had warned of far-reaching consequences in case of a long closure.<\/strong>
\n<\/span>Such a long closure seems to be off the table, now that Poland has announced<\/a> a reopening on the night of 24 to 25 September. However, many companies remained in uncertainty the past week about the duration of the closure. Poland might have had good reason to keep the border closed for a while longer, according to Piotr Krawczyk, former head of Poland\u2019s Foreign Intelligence Agency.<\/p>\n

He believed that the closure could have lasted some more time: \u201cThe Americans are smiling and supporting the Polish government in not rushing to reopen it \u2014 at least not very soon\u201d, Krawczyk told Politico. Washington has pressured EU countries to curb the China trade with tariffs, but it has likely been happy with this closure too. Other interests, besides scoring points with the White House, have apparently taken over with the approaching reopening.<\/p>\n

That is because the border closure has not been without its consequences for the broader economy. \u201cThe complete border closure is a crucial problem \u2014 not only for transport and logistics but for the whole economy\u201d, Artur Kalisiak, strategic projects director at the Transport & Logistics Poland industry association, told Politico earlier.<\/p>\n

Rail in China-EU trade<\/h2>\n

But how important is Ma\u0142aszewicze really for China-Europe trade? First, let\u2019s look at the volume of trade overall. In the past three years, trade with Beijing has been on the decline. It represented a 858 billion euro business in 2022, but that had dropped to 732 billion euros by 2024, according to Eurostat data. When it comes to only imports, the trend is similar: from 627 billion euros in 2022 to 519 in 2024.<\/p>\n

\n

EU\u2013China trade, in billions of euros (Eurostat)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Year<\/th>\nExports<\/th>\nImports<\/th>\nTotal trade<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
2022<\/td>\n230,4<\/td>\n627,8<\/td>\n858,2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2023<\/td>\n223,4<\/td>\n520,4<\/td>\n743,9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2024<\/td>\n213,1<\/td>\n519,0<\/td>\n732,2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

The vast majority of the exchange of goods takes place via ship. The role of rail is, by contrast, much smaller. Assessments on the share of the overland routes diverge, and it is not immediately clear how big of a business it is compared to the overall trade. For example, a figure that has been circulating since the start of the border closure is 25,07 billion euros. That number seems to have been mentioned first by publication TVP World, which cited transport analyst Upply.<\/p>\n

However, Chinese publications such as Xinhua and China Daily mention a much bigger overland trade turnover of 56,7 billion euros. That accounts for 7% of China\u2019s total trade with the EU, they say, which seems to be based on trade numbers similar to those of 2022 and 2023.<\/p>\n

The role of Ma\u0142aszewicze<\/h2>\n

It is clear that China-Europe rail freight represents a multibillion euro business. What is also clear is that Ma\u0142aszewicze stands head and shoulders above other entry points into Europe for Chinese trains. Yes, one could go via the Middle Corridor and enter Europe in Constan\u021ba or T\u00fcrkiye, but Ma\u0142aszewicze is the go-to gateway to Europe.<\/p>\n

\"Ma\u0142aszewicze
Data from ERAI. Image: \u00a9 RailFreight.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

How much of the incoming freight trains go through Ma\u0142aszewicze as a share of the total also remains a bit ambiguous. Politico has reported 90%, the Eurasian Rail Alliance Index puts the number at 84,7% (equal to 280,200 TEU). The two most popular routes for China-Europe rail both originate in key Chinese freight hubs: Xi\u2019an and Chongqing. Those both lead to Ma\u0142aszewicze and account for 25% and 19% of total China-Europe freight respectively. When adding trains from Chengdu, Chenzhou, Tsinghua, and Wuhan to Ma\u0142aszewicze to the equation, it already approaches a total of 75%.<\/p>\n

The role of rail is also growing, and it follows that the role of the Ma\u0142aszewicze border crossing is growing too. The rail corridor through Belarus now accounts for 3.7% of total annual trade between the EU and China, up from 2.1% in the previous year.<\/p>\n

\"Ma\u0142aszewicze
Data from various sources. Image: \u00a9 RailFreight.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

With such a share in total China-Europe trade, a prolonged border closure would be consequential, but not exactly catastrophic for the EU. A total stoppage would primarily impact companies directly involved with the route, such as rail freight operators and the Ma\u0142aszewicze terminals. Some supply chains may also be temporarily disrupted, for example, for companies in the automotive sector whose products make their way into Europe overland.<\/p>\n

However, alternatives exist. There is the limited capacity Middle Corridor, which is still very much a work in process and therefore not ideal. It is mostly the maritime sector that could take over rail volumes, especially in light of the expected overcapacity<\/a> in the sector in the coming decade or so. Those shipments will take longer, but there will be capacity for them.<\/p>\n

Despite the closure of this week, it seems very possible that the role of Ma\u0142aszewicze in international trade will grow further in the coming years. In June 2025, the China-Europe rail route reached the milestone of 110,000 trains, according to China Railway data. That represents a total value of 382,4 billion euros since 2011. From 2016 to 2023, the annual number of freight trains from China to the EU increased from 1,702 to over 17,000. The biggest hindrances to further growth may be political factors.<\/p>\n