{"id":270434,"date":"2025-08-21T19:02:32","date_gmt":"2025-08-21T09:02:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/?p=65214"},"modified":"2025-08-21T19:02:32","modified_gmt":"2025-08-21T09:02:32","slug":"analyst-a-decade-of-container-shipping-overcapacity-on-the-horizon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vibewire.com.au\/?p=270434","title":{"rendered":"Analyst: A decade of container shipping overcapacity on the horizon"},"content":{"rendered":"

Shipping lines are placing orders like never before. Transportation capacity at sea will almost certainly grow to new heights. That poses major risks for the maritime shipping sector, but it also does not bode well for rail freight.<\/strong>
\n<\/span>It is not quite the first appearance of reports about upcoming overcapacity at sea. Yet, the Singapore-based analyst Linerlytica has issued perhaps the most stark warning thus far. Shipping lines have now placed orders that equal 31.7% of the existing fleet capacity: a historic high.<\/p>\n

The last time that a similar situation occurred was between 2004 and 2009, and the maritime sector would go on to struggle for a decade with overcapacity issues. The prospect for the sector now is much the same: exceptionally high capacity at sea could lead shipping lines to lower their rates significantly to attract more goods. As a result of the expected low rates, which could immediately follow these huge orders, the financial performance of the shipping lines might disappoint for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

Impact on rail freight<\/h2>\n

The expected development is also not a good sign for rail freight. That is especially true on the Asia-Europe route, where rail is in direct competition with maritime shipping. The amount of containers transported by rail in the first seven months of 2025 shrunk by 22%<\/a> compared to the same period in 2024. Much of that decline, if not all, happened due to lower maritime rates in 2025.<\/p>\n

\"Chinese
Chinese container trains like these, in Kazakhstan, could have a few containers less on board in the future. Image: Shutterstock \u00a9 Korvit<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

At the same time, however, European ports are already having a difficult time keeping up with incoming container traffic. Major ports such as Hamburg, Rotterdam and Antwerp all face their own problems, leading to significant delays. There is only so much traffic that ports can handle. The impact on Asia-Europe rail traffic therefore also depends on throughput capacity of these major ports, and how much traffic alternative ports can take over.<\/p>\n

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On the flipside: both Rotterdam and Antwerp pointed to rail as part of the solution<\/strong> for congestion in the ports. Congestion arises mostly on the land side of operations, explained the Port of Rotterdam, meaning that rail can help boost the outflow capacity for containers.<\/p>\n