{"id":177237,"date":"2025-02-18T19:43:59","date_gmt":"2025-02-18T09:43:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/?p=59899"},"modified":"2025-02-18T19:43:59","modified_gmt":"2025-02-18T09:43:59","slug":"german-elections-status-quo-likely-outcome-for-rail-freight-but-hope-for-improvement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vibewire.com.au\/?p=177237","title":{"rendered":"German elections: \u2018Status quo likely outcome for rail freight, but hope for improvement\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

Germany is an important, if not the most important country for rail freight in Europe. The country\u2019s persistent rail issues, such as sky-high track access charges (TAC) and unreliable infrastructure, impact companies and logistics well beyond the country\u2019s borders. But with the federal parliamentary elections coming up on 23 February, there is an opportunity for change.<\/strong>
\n<\/span>However, change is not just going to happen out of the blue. It very much depends on which parties become influential enough to leave their mark on policy, and which ones have the right ideas for the rail freight sector. In order to find out what we can expect, RailFreight.com reached out to Florian Ney, policy expert at rail freight association Die G\u00fcterbahnen.<\/p>\n

Die G\u00fcterbahnen did its own investigation<\/a> into the German political parties and their plans for the sector. \u201cWe found that two parties have more in-depth ideas on rail freight in their party programmes\u201d, Ney explains. \u201cThose are the Greens (die Gr\u00fcnen) and the Left (die Linke).\u201d<\/p>\n

Modestly in-depth ideas<\/h2>\n

\u2018In-depth ideas\u2019 should be understood in relatively modest terms. \u201cA good thing is that they mentioned rail freight specifically\u201d, says Ney. \u201cThey took over the current government\u2019s official modal shift target of 25 per cent by 2030. It is part of the existing coalition agreement, and they put it in their party programmes.\u201d<\/p>\n

Besides mentioning rail freight, the Green and the Left score well on other metrics that Die G\u00fcterbahnen identified, such as financing and track access charges. Both parties are proponents of a multi-year financing plan and new TAC determination policy.<\/p>\n

Those two are key issues for rail freight. \u201cFinancing is a chronic issue, and therefore the most important\u201d, says Ney. Die G\u00fcterbahnen wants a financing model similar to the ones used in Austria and Switzerland – where the financing is determined for years ahead of time, providing security and predictability. Whereas all parties mention something about financing in their programmes, none of them provide hard numbers.<\/p>\n

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Germany has low rail investment compared to Switzerland, Austria and Luxembourg, no traffic policy strategy, financing planning only for one year, and the state does not waive returns. Image: \u00a9 Allianz pro-Schiene<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

4-euro TACs in 2026?<\/h2>\n

Track access charges<\/a> are a similarly crucial topic for German rail freight. Due to Germany\u2019s debt brake, the government cannot finance Deutsche Bahn by taking on debt without cutting funding elsewhere. Rather, it needs to raise the company\u2019s equity, which entitles it to a larger profit margin. In turn, the company needs to grow TACs. Die Guterbahnen expects another equity injection in 2026 to facilitate the ongoing rail upgrades, which would grow TACs to 4,23 euros per kilometre or more – a major financial burden for rail freight operators.<\/p>\n

Thankfully, there seems to be a broad consensus on TAC reform among the German parties, making it into most electoral programmes. It is notably absent in the programme of the Christian Democrats (CDU), which are likely to gain the largest share of the vote. However, a party rail expert told Die G\u00fcterbahnen that they are aware of the issue and want to change current policy.<\/p>\n

Transport finances transport<\/h2>\n

CDU is likely to become the most influential party in German politics, and will definitely leave its mark on rail freight in the next legislative term. \u201cA disappointing point in their programme concerns the \u2018transport finances transport\u2019 initiative\u201d, says Ney.<\/p>\n

For Die G\u00fcterbahnen, the policy to levy a toll on heavy duty road traffic and redirect the funds to rail was a big success. But the CDU wants to get rid of it. \u201cThey\u2019d rather see the money go back to the road\u201d, says Ney, even though they do not explicitly mention it in their programme.<\/p>\n

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The future of Deutsche Bahn is an important topic in this election cycle. Image: Shutterstock. \u00a9 MihailC95<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

By contrast, the CDU\u2019s position on the separation of DB into a standalone infrastructure manager and rail operators is met with agreement from the rail freight association. Among the other parties, only the FDP (Freie Demokratische Partei, classical-liberals) and AfD (Alternative f\u00fcr Deutschland, far-right) mention it specifically in their party programmes.<\/p>\n

A notably absent issue in the electoral campaigns is the issue of innovation, such as the technologies ERTMS and DAC. This could be explained by the fact that these issues are not relatable to the general public.<\/p>\n

Expectations from the next government<\/h2>\n

With all that in mind, what can we expect from an incoming German government in terms of rail freight policy? \u201cWe do not expect much of Germany as a European pacemaker for rail freight, when looking at the party programmes\u201d, says Ney. \u201cBut our demand is that Germany does assert the role of a European pacemaker in rail policy, so in that sense we \u201cexpect\u201d that from the next government\u201d, Ney adds.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe CDU will definitely make it into government, and they will leave their mark. It will really come down to the SPD (Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands, social democrats) or the Greens to determine which policy projects will be feasible.\u201d<\/p>\n

The feasibility of such a coalition depends on how many parties get into parliament. With current polling, the smallest party to make it in would be the Left. \u201cIf both the FDP and BSW (B\u00fcndnis Sahra Wagenknecht, left) also clear the 5 per cent threshold, coalition formation becomes a lot more difficult\u201d, explains Ney.<\/p>\n

The most likely outcome seems to be a CDU\/SPD coalition, according to the Die G\u00fcterbahnen policy expert. Between those parties, however, there\u2019s going to be a stalemate on the issue of the separation of Deutsche Bahn. The situation is unlikely to be resolved with those two parties in government. A positive thing is that TACs will definitely be on the agenda.<\/p>\n

More priority from the Greens?<\/h2>\n

There is hope that CDU and SPD will make infrastructure financing more predictable. \u201cThey both acknowledge that issue\u201d, says Ney. \u201cBut there is little ambition from CDU to raise funding for rail and to make it more important than the road. The SPD wants to continue the current government\u2019s path when it comes to investments. So a continuation of the status quo is likely.\u201d<\/p>\n

The situation is slightly different if the Greens make it into government. \u201cThey could be more willing to compromise with the CDU on certain issues, like the organisation of the infrastructure manager. But if they take the ministry, they could be more active on rail, also from a sustainability perspective. For now, that is all speculation, however\u201d, concludes Ney.<\/p>\n