{"id":171419,"date":"2025-01-30T20:25:31","date_gmt":"2025-01-30T10:25:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/?p=59408"},"modified":"2025-01-30T20:25:31","modified_gmt":"2025-01-30T10:25:31","slug":"gaza-ceasefire-brings-hope-for-red-sea-stability-what-would-that-mean-for-rail-freight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vibewire.com.au\/?p=171419","title":{"rendered":"Gaza ceasefire brings hope for Red Sea stability: What would that mean for rail freight?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Now that there is a ceasefire in Gaza, there is a prospect for stability at the Red Sea. The Houthi rebel group in Yemen, who have been targeting passerby ships in the Red Sea as a support measure for the people of Gaza, also seem to be observing the ceasefire. Maritime shippers remain cautious, but a return of shipping to the Red Sea now seems possible. Could that have an impact on China – Europe rail freight?<\/strong>
\n<\/span>Xavier Wanderpepen, a rail freight consultant, explains that it most definitely could. According to him, the rail freight market is volatile, and its circumstances change all the time: \u201cIf we were to graph the volumes and transit times of freight trains over the past five years, we would see situations that range from excellent to chaotic.\u201d<\/p>\n

One such change in circumstances is the security situation at the Red Sea. \u201cMany customers now use rail transport by default, due to issues with other transport modes and especially because of the problems with the Suez canal\u2014not because the service is particularly attractive\u201d, the rail freight consultant explains.<\/p>\n

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A container ship in the Red Sea. Image: Shutterstock. \u00a9 David G40<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Chaotic and embarrassing<\/h2>\n

That last part is key. Rail freight may be an adequate solution to some for the time being, but it is not an ideal one. \u201cA quick calculation for a 9,000-kilometre journey in 19 days gives an average speed of 20 kilometres per hour \u2014 the speed of a bicycle\u2026Nothing is guaranteed\u201d, says Wanderpepen. \u201cUnexpected border closures or congestion issues make rail freight services sometimes chaotic and even embarrassing. Few regular customers have escaped one, two, or even three weeks of delays.\u201d<\/p>\n

As such, it seems probable that a change in the competitiveness of maritime shipping will impact China – Europe rail freight. \u201cHopes for peace in the Middle East raise expectations of normal traffic via the Suez Canal. Many clients, as always, will conclude that for a 2-3 week difference, it’s better to return to shipping by sea\u2014until the next crisis in ports or shipping lanes forces them back to trains. Such is the yo-yo fate of BRI trains\u201d, Wanderpepen concludes.<\/p>\n